US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 April 2009 /

If low scoring Augusta continues to play like this we are set for a trader's dream...

Despite looking a certainty to do so in-running, Tiger Woods has still never shot better than 70 on an opening day of the Masters. That's not a statistic that will unduly worry his legion of backers, whose support has forced Woods' odds down from a pre-tournament [3.8] to just [3.0]. They may be fully aware that three of the great man's Masters titles came after an opening round 70.

However, that formline might not read so well if the low scoring is maintained. The Augusta we saw today was the easiest it's played in several years, with an incredible 38 players shooting under par. So long as rounds of 65 or 66 are available, things can and will change very quickly. In other words, a trader's dream.

The market has already been lively enough, with round one producing a typical roller-coaster ride for traders on the outright market. Tiger's odds were matched between a high of [5.3] and a low of [2.2], before settling around [3.0] after he bogeyed the last. With so many players under par, we are perfectly set-up for an entertaining weekend, with a tightly bunched, frequently changing leaderboard.

In such a scenario, backing Woods at [3.0] is no sort of trading option. He may well win, but unless he shoots very low today, he's not going to run away with it. He looked in superb form yesterday, but is still only in a tie for 20th. If several players are shooting low scores every day, Woods' advantage is definitely reduced. I reckon he would have to shoot at least 69 for that price to shorten even a small fraction.

Instead, when high drama and volatility are expected, the best trading strategy is always to back high, lay low.

Therefore, my trading plan for round two is to back a quartet of players ranging at prices from [34.0] to [75.0], with a view to laying back anyone who shortens to single figures at any stage.

There's a theory that, because thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon, late starters will be disadvantaged. I'm not so sure. After all, if thunderstorms cause a break in play, over half the field will have their rounds interrupted, not just the late starters. And with the course softened by rain, the greens will be much more receptive than they would be otherwise and scoring conditions might actually improve.

If that scenario does occur, the longer hitters could have a significant advantage. Three likely candidates with late tee-times are Nick Watney, Angel Cabrera and Lee Westwood. All are a minimum of [55.0], and at least level with Tiger at this stage. In addition, Mike Weir won his Masters title in wet conditions and warrants plenty of respect at [34.0] sitting just three shots behind leader Chad Campbell.

With those four, that takes my tally of Masters selections to eight, including my four 'Find Me a 100 Winner' selections. All of them shot under par and are therefore very much still in the event, with Hunter Mahan performing best to finish the round in second place. Surely I've got to snare at least one strong weekend challenger out of that lot?

Selections:

Mike Weir @ [34.0]
Angel Cabrera @ [55.0]
Nick Watney @ [60.0]
Lee Westwood @ [75.0]

Already Advised:

Hunter Mahan @ [110.0]
Andres Romero @ [140.0]
Jeev-Milkha Singh @ [250.0]
Miguel Angel-Jimenez @ [260.0]

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