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US Masters Betting: Moody Mickelson lets himself down

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It's been a poor Masters for The Punter as his picks all go backwards

Saturday is known as 'moving day' and my selections moved all right. They moved considerably further down the leaderboard.

Oberholser never got competitive, shooting 74. Ames set the tone for his round with a bogey at the first and went on to record a dismal 77.

But Mickelson was even more disappointing. A birdie at the 2nd saw him trade as low as [3.6] but it all changed on the par 5 8th. His third shot was spot on, too good as it happened because it deflected violently off the flag and instead of an easy birdie conversion from a few feet he was left with a lengthy putt. His reaction to this single incident of ill fortune was poor to say the least. Plenty of head shaking and mumbling preceded a three putt bogey. Further bogeys followed at the 10th and 12th and his tournament was over. I couldn't help thinking that he had just shown in the starkest of fashions the difference between himself and Tiger Woods. One piece of bad luck and the he had crumpled like a cheap suit.

I made a further play on Brandt Snedeker @ [7.6] as he led the field on the 10th hole. I had been tempted throughout the front nine; he seemed composed and highly likely to contend for the title. But bogeys at the 11th, 12th and 13th followed and he drifted right out to [30.0].

Fortunately he showed some real grit, bouncing back with three birdies to end the day on -9, just two behind Immelman. A further shot back in third was Steve Flesch, with England's Paul Casey in fourth on -7. Woods looked to be the only other likely contender on -5.

Sunday was something of a damp squib really, all Immelman's closest challengers wilted away one by one and a three over par 75 was comfortably enough to see him win his first major.

Casey had fluffed his lines very early on and was soon out of the race. Flesch waited until the 12th hole before he choked horrendously, dropping six shots in as many holes. Snedeker was calamitous all day really and was clearly not ready for this stage. While Woods battled typically tenaciously but in truth was just not in top form. Despite his putter malfunctioning he finished only three shots back of Immelman in second.

So 30 years after Gary Player's third Masters Trevor Immelman, a pre-event [330.0] shot, had became the second South African winner. Compatriots Els, Goosen, Clark and Sabbatini had all recently finished runners up so you could say South Africa was due a winner.

Though not the most exciting final day's play it was an inspirational story. Only a few months ago the golfing world was genuinely concerned as to whether Immelman would ever be seen in competitive golf again and now here he was a wearing a green jacket.

Were back to two tournaments next week and I'll make known my opening gambits on Wednesday.

* * *
Saturday April 12th

My main pick Mickelson has enjoyed some good fortune so far and is now only three off the lead on -5 and a [4.7] chance. On day one, an outrageous putt from off the green on the first hole saw him get off to the perfect start. And the par 5 13th has been extremely kind to him. In both rounds it looked like his second shots were destined for Rae's creek but they somehow stayed dry.

Stephen Ames is also still very much in the mix on -4 but my other picks, despite great first rounds, look to have too much to do now. Choi was my big disappointment, he was on -2 when he found the water off the 16th tee and has slipped steadily back ever since.
I did make one further ill judged bet. Els @ [50.0] on day one just before he double bogeyed the 14th!

So what now? Current leader Trevor Immelman, on -8, bids to become the first first round leader to go on to win since Ben Crenshaw in 1984. It would be some story, only four months ago he was undergoing surgery to remove a non-cancerous tumour from his diaphragm! Trevor's an awesome player but can struggle with a lead. Of today's final pairing, I actually see more value in Brandt Snedeker at more than twice Immelman's price and only one back, but in truth I can see them both stumbling today.

What about Tiger Woods, now at [5.1]? You can never discount him but it took an incredible par at the last yesterday just to leave him seven shots back. The concerns I had before the event have materialised and I think he has too much on his plate. Augusta isn't a catch up course nowadays and I just don't think he's playing well enough to make up the ground. There are some quality players in between him and Immelman and four of them are English! Self proclaimed world number two Poulter the best of them on -5.

I wasn't going to make any further plays at this stage but Arron Oberholser is a class act and on -3 he's worth a few bob at a massive [70.0]. Dogged by injury, his back seems to be holding up so far this week

The best tactic could well be to wait until tomorrow though. Last year was the first time in seventeen years that the winner had come from outside the final pairing. I'm hoping the final pairing tomorrow will be Mickelson and Ames but it's not often that easy.
Whatever happens I'll be looking back at all the action on Monday.