US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 12 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Paul Krishnamurty updates us on his position as we enter the final round of the US Masters and tells us why in the final round of two-balls Garcia is a lay and Woods is a back.

The stats couldn't offer a clearer pointer. 17 of the last 18 Masters winners played in the final 2-ball on Sunday, proving beyond reasonable doubt that Augusta is one of the toughest courses on which to play 'catch-up'. That must bode well for joint-leaders Kenny Perry and Angel Cabrera, who opened up a two-shot gap to the rest last night and now share favouritism around the [3.5] mark.

Having backed Cabrera on Friday at [55.0], and recommended him again yesterday, I've seen nothing to change my mind. The powerful Argentinian is driving the ball superbly, and has looked as good as anyone around the greens this week. The fact that he has already won a US Open could be a significant advantage over Perry, who is bidding to become the oldest ever major winner.

So far, neither have shown any sign of 'bottling' this chance, and both have built good reputations as 'finishers' throughout their PGA and European Tour careers. But however much the stats and formbook point us towards backing the leaders, anyone with experience of trading golf tournaments in-running knows such a strategy rarely makes sense.

There's just too much that can happen, especially around a course a tough as this. Even if the final results have seemed obvious, we have seen plenty of drama at Augusta over the last 10 to 15 years. We've seen Greg Norman blow a six-shot lead to Nick Faldo, and Phil Mickelson birdie five of the last six holes to overhaul Ernie Els. More recently, the final round in 2007 saw huge fluctuations, with the lead changing hands several times. As I recall, joint-runners-up Goosen and Sabbatini both started the round at 200.0 or more, while eventual winner Zach Johnson was around [40.0].

These examples show that, even when the final result is obvious, there are fortunes to be won and lost trading players at big prices. So who should we be looking at tonight? In my view, the likes of Woods and Mickelson are too far back at -4. They'll need a minimum 64 to even think of winning, and even then it might not be enough.

Steve Stricker and Rory Sabbatini are not so far back though, and at [24.0] and [50.0] respectively, could offer some decent trading value. All it would take for either player is a strong start; say -4 through the front-nine; and they could be challenging for the lead. And as we saw in 2007, Sabbatini has some history in this regard.

On a personal note, I've taken the chance to 'green up' on Cabrera before these new speculative trades. I also like a couple of 2-ball bets.

Opposing Sergio Garcia when he's out of contention has proved a rock-solid strategy in recent years. Quite simply, his attitude is terrible when playing for pride, especially when the putter starts to frustrate him. Today's opponent, Stuart Appleby, fought back well for an under-par round yesterday and looks excellent value at [2.66].

Finally, in the 2-ball everyone wants to see, Tiger Woods is a must-bet at [1.73] against Phil Mickelson. Even if the title is beyond their grasp, this one matters on a personal and psychological level. For me, this is a no-brainer. I can't imagine a scenario where, in a head to head contest, I wouldn't back the greatest competitor in sport versus his sometimes flaky, and clearly inferior nearest rival.

Selections

Steve Stricker @ [24.0]
Rory Sabbatini @ [50.0]

2-Balls

16.55 Stuart Appleby @ [2.66] (vs Garcia)
18.35 Tiger Woods @ [1.73] (v Mickelson)

Already advised

Mike Weir @ 34.0
Angel Cabrera @ 55.0
Nick Watney @ 60.0
Lee Westwood @ 75.0
Hunter Mahan @ 110.0
Andres Romero @ 140.0
Jeev Milkha Singh @ 250.0
Miguel-Angel Jiminez @ 260.0