US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

Imagine this year's US Masters without Tiger Woods. It must be an appetising thought for every professional golfer out there. Fortunately for us punters, we don't have to go up against the big guy if we don't want to. Paul Krishnamurty explains

With so little original left to say, I'm determined to mention you-know-who as little as possible in the run-up to Thursday. Yes, I think he'll win, possibly by several shots. But to me, betting on a Major championship is about a lot, lot more than just who wins the event.

For a start, there are six top nationality markets that don't include Tiger. The beauty of betting in a market such as Top European, or Top US without Woods, is that the odds remain competitive whilst its perfectly possible that the bet can still win even if your selection finishes 8th. Naturally given the sheer number of players involved, both of those look wide-open. At least 15 of the Europeans could emerge on top, several of whom could quite easily win the trophy.

And that's nothing compared to the US market, in which there are 30 candidates with fairly high reputations on the PGA Tour. Given that large number, I'm inclined to oppose [3.5] favourite Phil Mickelson who is having a nightmare on the greens at the moment. There's bound to be plenty of other Americans there or thereabouts, and I just wonder how motivated Mickelson will be if minor placings are all he has left to play for over the weekend.

In my view though, the best value in the nationality markets lies in more limited fields competing for Top South African and Top Australian. The former is inevitably headed by Els and Goosen, but their short odds don't reflect the struggles they've endured over the past year. Goosen has made only one top-10 since finishing runner-up last year and will have his work cut out maintaining a superb course record. As for Els, he's set to go down as one of the best players never to win a Masters, and has played poorly here three years in a row.

Even if one of them does have a good tournament, they'd still be far from certainties to finish ahead of lively outsiders Rory Sabbatini and Tim Clark. Both have proved their fondness for Augusta, claiming the runners-up spot once each in the past couple of runnings. Trading at [8.0] and [10.0] respectively, this pair look tremendous value in what is effectively a six-runner contest.

There are nine Australians competing at Augusta, none of whom has ever produced their best golf in the Masters. The market is predictably dominated by Adam Scott and Geoff Ogilvy, the two form players. Despite their form in rather different settings, the only top-10 either has ever registered at Augusta was six years ago. With none of the others promising anything special, I reckon they're worth taking on with Stuart Appleby at [8.0]. Apples took an age to get the hang of this course, but has started to come good with 19th and 7th placed finishes since 2005. Furthermore, he's been enjoying an impressive, and consistent, season with four top-10s from seven events.

Of equal interest are the top-5 and top-10 markets. All courses used for Major championships tend to produce a thorough test of golf, magnifying any weaknesses in a player's game. Augusta proves this point as well as any other, with the consequence being that dozens of regular Masters competitors are simply never able to perform at their best here. If these lightning-fast, complex greens are giving you nightmares at the age of 30, its unlikely to get any better. As a result, the top-20 places every year are largely made up of the same predictable crowd.

Certain players have incredibly consistent course records. As with the rest of the group formerly known as the 'Big 5', Vijay Singh has been a model of consistency at Augusta. Since winning in 2000, he's made the top-10 five times from seven attempts, never worse than 18th. Obviously, an annual bet at this week's odds of [2.3] would have yielded a healthy overall profit and all the pointers suggest he can repeat the trick. Ever resilient, Vijay has bounced back strongly from a below-par spell to show excellent form in recent weeks, including 3rd at Bay Hill and runner-up in the latest WGC event.

Tournament match bets are another useful means of retaining an interest over the four days, even if the players concerned aren't on the leaderboard. Take the fascinating match-up between Spanish veterans Jose-Maria Olazabal and Miguel-Angel Jiminez. If either were to win or even contend it would be some shock, though I'm sure the BBC coverage will provide regular updates as they're both European. Twice former champion Olazabal has only just returned from injury, but played pretty well to make the top-30 in Houston. Jiminez hasn't had any such fitness worries - his greater concern must be a series of below-par efforts in 2008. Even amongst weak European Tour fields in ideal conditions, "The Mechanic" hasn't offered any sort of threat.

There are very few players I'd rather be on side with in such bets than the ultimate professional Olazabal, who is always determined to attain the highest possible finishing position even when all winning chance has gone. He's going to have to produce something special to produce his very best this soon after injury, but is perfectly capable of landing a ninth top-20 finish on what must be his favourite golf course.

Selections:

Back Rory Sabbatini @ [8.0] (Top South African)
Back Tim Clark @ [10.0] (Top South African)
Back Stuart Appleby @ [8.0] (Top Australian)
Lay Phil Mickelson @ [3.3] (Top US w/o Woods)
Back Vijay Singh @ [2.3] (Top 10 Finish)
Back Jose Maria Olazabal vs Miguel Angel Jiminez @ [1.94] (Tournament Match Bets)

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