US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 25 March 2012 /

Paul Krishnamurty provides four detailed pointers which could help you make money betting on the US Masters...

'Warm-up' events have proved a poor guide

For obvious reasons, it is a stone-cold certainty that winners, along with pretty much anyone contending during the fortnight preceding the season's first major, will shorten up dramatically in the Masters outright market. However, while the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Houston Open are indeed prestigious events, attracting strong fields that take plenty of beating, they have proved an awful form guide for Augusta in recent years.

Consider stats for the six seasons since the Houston Open assumed this slot on the schedule, immediately earning the title of 'Masters warm-up' due to the similarities between Redstone and Augusta. No winner at either Bay Hill or Redstone went on to win at Masters and only two players placed in either event made the top-five - Tiger Woods, who won at Bay Hill in 2007, and 2010 Houston champion Anthony Kim. It is tempting to conclude that Rory McIlroy's decision to take the fortnight off, in order to arrive fresh at Augusta, is the right one.

Augusta is much more than just a bombers' paradise

Memories of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson repeatedly overpowering this famous old course have often prompted pundits to conclude that Augusta is paradise for big-hitters, and that short-hitters are at an insurmountable disadvantage. Recent results, however, paint a more complex picture and may even suggest that a world-class touch on or around the greens is more important.

Of course the combination of wide-open fairways, four reachable par-fives and a relative lack of penal rough means driving distance is an asset, but short-hitters have also fared well. KJ Choi has challenged strongly in the last two Masters, despite ranking well below 100th for driving distance on the PGA Tour. The 2007 champ Zach Johnson is even shorter off the tee. Despite a supposed handicap in this respect, the Masters has been Luke Donald's most productive major. Equally, neither of the PGA Tour's two classiest bombers - Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson - have yet to better 30th.

The Masters is becoming an outsiders event

Given the illustrious rollcall of former champions, it seems strange to write this, but since the course was repeatedly toughened up over the past decade, the Masters has become dominated by outsiders. When Phil Mickelson won his second Green Jacket in 2006, it was the 17th time in 19 years that the winner had been either ranked in the world's top-ten or a previous champion. In five renewals since, Mickelson's 2010 victory is the only time the winner wasn't a rank outsider. Zach Johnson and Trevor Immelman began the week in excess of [300.00], while Angel Cabrera and Charl Schwartzel were both around the [150.00] mark. There were also plenty of outsiders amongst the places, including last year's runner-up Jason Day and the entire top-four in 2009.

Be wary of last year's in-running trends: Augusta remains a front-runners' course

Another long-standing assumption that at least deserves reviewing concerns Augusta's reputation as one of the hardest courses in the world on which to play catch-up. It is golf's most infamous in-running trend that the Masters winner always come from Sunday's final group and, with 19 of the last 21 champions meeting that criteria, the numbers back it up. The two exceptions were Johnson in 2007 and Schwartzel last year, both of whom won after strangely dramatic final rounds.

More often that not, a small batch of players detach themselves from the rest over the weekend, but last year the final round lead seemed to change every five minutes. The greens were more receptive than usual, and chasers seemed much likelier to make birdies than in the past. However it should be added that were it not for McIlroy's spectacular implosion, we may well have seen another front-running winner. The 2007 Masters was completely different in many respects, not least an over-par winning score. The basic conditions remain; this is a course where most birdies and eagles are made on a small number of holes, meaning front-runners can play the tougher holes conservatively while the rest are forced to take unhealthy risks. Unless the greens are as receptive as 12 months ago, we should assume the historical trends will repeat themselves.

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