US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 13 April 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty can't see the South African closing the deal and paying a visit to the tailor on Saturday night to take down his measurements for a certain Green Jacket. Here's why...

With 18 holes left to play, it appears certain that the Masters will be won by one of six players. Amongst them is Tiger Woods, who hit a 68 today to stay in the hunt and keep those Grand Slam dreams alive. When he reached the clubhouse following an excellent 68 in tough conditions, it seemed certain that he would start the final round as favourite. But that was before a superb finish from Trevor Immelman, which leaves Tiger with another mountain to climb from six back.

Of course the possibility remains that Tiger will go low tomorrow and all around will lose their heads under the pressure. Lets face it, this has happened to some of the most experienced characters on the circuit, and every one of the other five is chasing his first Major championship. Nevertheless, given how rare margins of that scale are overturned, Woods looks poor value at [5.1].

Solving the puzzle from here requires correctly predicting which players will handle the pressure, and most obviously how Immelman will fare in defending his two-shot lead. My book urgently requires Immelman to drift, so perhaps there is some wishful thinking in my final round analysis. But there's no harm indulging in some positive thinking, and I can think of three good reasons to support either the view that the South African is worth taking on at [2.5], or for finding a trading alternative.

Firstly, having shared the lead after round one, he will have to overcome a twenty-four year jinx on the first-round leader. Ben Crenshaw in 1984 was the last to win after leading on Thursday, and even he wasn't in front at the end of all four rounds as Immelman is attempting. There are of course some very well-known stats that counter this one. Like the fact that 16 of the last 17 winners played in the final group. The only way both stats can be maintained is for Brandt Snedeker to come out on top.

Secondly, there are strong winds forecast for tomorrow evening. On any course, wind massively increases the likelihood of dropped shots. At Augusta, on glass-like greens, it can make life extremely difficult. This isn't in itself a disadvantage as the chasing pack will have to score in the same tough conditions, but recent history shows us the carnage that can be caused by a change in the weather on the last day of a Major. Most famously, Paul Lawrie won the Open from ten back on Sunday, and in the same Major last year Harrington started the last day six behind the leader. Tiger Woods take note.

Thirdly, though I've generally been impressed with Immelman's temperament, the last time he challenged on Sunday he looked anything but assured down the stretch. That was at the Nedbank Challenge last November, an event he eventually won as he had enough shots in hand to survive the wobbles. It could get very interesting if and when Immelman realises the Green Jacket is there for the taking. His driving has been superb this week, and even his number one weakness, putting, has been exemplary. Let's see if they hold up under pressure on this most penal of courses.

If I was having a bet from scratch, I think I'd lay Immelman at 2.5. However, this is anything but my first bet on the event, and I'm still cheering on bets placed on Casey at [70.0] and Flesch at [40.0] so I'll sit out the start of this and try and bank some profit out of those before diving in again.

And we had another winner in yesterday's 2-ball on Johnson Wagner, taking the tournament profit on these daily bets up to 25 points. I'm playing up most of those winnings on two final bets. The nap is Miguel-Angel Jiminez to beat David Toms. 'The Mechanic' has found some form over the last couple of days after looking certain to miss the cut, and looks fair value to beat the former USPGA champion. Toms has been carrying a back injury in recent weeks, so tomorrow could be quite gruelling, especially as he's never been at his best in bad weather.

Most of the later matches look very even, but course specialist Retief Goosen looks a firm favourite against Ian Poulter. After Poulter's ludicrous comments about being the second best player in the world, it would take a severe lack of humour to not laugh at last night's two shanks in front of the biggest TV audience since. Even if he can live down the embarrassment, he'll have his work cut out matching Augusta specialist Goose, for whom the soft course is in ideal condition.

SELECTIONS

2-BALLS

10pts MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 2.24 (VS TOMS)
10pts RETIEF GOOSEN @ 2.2 (VS POULTER)

ADVISED EARLIER - CASEY @ 70, FLESCH @ 40, KARLSSON @ 140, WEIR @ 34, AMES @ 30

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