US Masters / Steven Rawlings / 07 April 2009 / 3 Comments

There are just two initial selections for Steve Rawlings this week but that's part of his strategy for a successful gambling weekend.

Nobody needs to be told who the most obvious candidate for a nice new green jacket come Sunday is, but is there any value in backing Tiger Woods?

After a sticky start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational he charged through the field most impressively to collar Sean O'Hair when it mattered, improving his driving stats every day on the way and I have no problem envisaging him getting back on track this week in pursuit of Jack's total of 18 major wins.

There's more than one way to skin a cat, however, and there's more than one way to back the Tiger. Remarkably Woods has never broken 70 in the first round at Augusta, so backing him before day two may not be the smart move, especially when you take into account his sluggish start two weeks ago at Bay Hill.

There's a school of thought that Woods' doesn't quite fit the new look Augusta but I don't snorkel in that particular think tank (how about that for a nauseating bit of jargon?). Although he's only won once in the last six years he hasn't been out of the first three in the last four and I have a feeling this week could see him return to winning ways here.

When he last triumphed here, edging out Chris DiMarco back in 2005, I was able to jump aboard at a whopping [6.0] as he made his move during round two. It's a risky strategy but I'm going to leave the great man from the get-go and try a similar trick this year.

Players I considered but didn't back include, Nick Watney, who's just too short a price now, Retief Goosen, who seems to have a new lease of life since turning 40 but I can't quite trust and Geoff Ogilvy whose 'all over the place play' at the weekend has put me off.

I backed just two players before the off this year, Phil Mickelson, who I backed as low as [8.6] as he won at Doral and Zach Johnson, who I backed way back in January after he'd won the Hawaiian Open, at [50.0].

I haven't been able to resist going in again on Lefty, who has drifted to a very nice price after last week's missed cut in Houston. I wouldn't take a blind bit of notice of that though, he was out in by far the worst of the conditions and given his choices after a poor start, of either scrapping like mad to get back in contention or missing the cut and getting to Georgia early, he was always going to elect for option two.

Selections:

Phil Mickelson at an average of [9.2]
Zach Johnson at [50.0]

After unexpected winners in the last two renewals, I'll be surprised if we get another shock this year and I'll be hoping, like many, that we get a mouth-watering, back-nine Sunday clash between Lefty and Woods. Whatever happens I'll post a daily update, throughout the event, starting on Friday morning.

Comments (3)

1. Alfred Reuter | 07 April 2009

   Hi, I just wondered why is Mickelson always tipped in this column, I've noticed he is ALWAYS tipped whether he is playing brilliant or terrible? Did you not watch last week? The weather was not his main problem, he was having massive swing trouble and simply can not win a Major playing like that, and he's has also won a couple of events this year, he can't keep winning everything, he's not that good.
   

2. Steve | 08 April 2009

   Thanks for your comments Alfred, it's great to get some feedback.
   You're quite right, I do back Mickelson an awful lot, though in my defence, I didn't last week!
   I tend to follow him in the early part of the year, which is when the vast majority of his wins have occurred, and always in the Masters, where he has an outstanding record. I appreciate that last week wasn't an ideal preparation but he's bounced back from a missed cut and won the following week a few times, so I'm not unduly worried.
   Nobody divides opinion like Mickelson - I know some very good judges that aren't big fans but I'm only worried about the bottom line. Last year was the first year he didn't make me a profit and he's already made up for that with his two wins this year.
   Once again, thanks for the feedback and good luck with your picks this week.

3. Alfred Reuter | 08 April 2009

   Hi, Thanks for the reply, I assumed he must be a favourite of yours or won for your many times, and I often back him myself, but at the start of the year he was having big problems with his game, then he won a couple of times and looked superb, but then last week back he was back to having swing problems, he is very hard to catch right. I've had 1 pound win on Mcilroy he must have a big chance, I thought he was great value for such a special kid, even though he has no experience here. I also think Lee Westwood is a solid pick. Steve Stricker is another selection of mine and even though his record here is not good, I like the way he's been playing lately and he is very consistent. I can see him winning a couple of Majors in the next few years. Gary Player has always been a favourite of mine, and on his last masters appearance I felt the legend had to be backed at huge odds, only 25p e/w though, I use to love watching him play but I would settle for a Top 5 right now. I've had a small bet on Tom Watson another big favourite of mine, and I've also backed Tiger Woods e/w I just could not leave the great man out on a course he loves. Very best of luck to you Sir and it would be nice to see Phil play well

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