The Masters Betting Portfolio: Woods, the favourite and the probable winner...

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

...but how should you play him in the many markets on Betfair? Paul Krishnamurty explains

Unless you've been on Mars for the past six months, you'll be fully aware that Tiger Woods will start an overwhelming favourite at Augusta. What left is there to say about the great man? Other than admiring a game that has no weaknesses, excels in every department and improves a gear under pressure?

The simple truth is that there are no holes to be picked in his form, nor his outstanding chance of winning his fifth Green Jacket. He's won nine of his last 11 events dating back to last July, by a large number of shots on several occasions. On one of his favourite courses, scene of his first amazing Major win 11 years ago, it would be madness to deny that this is Tiger's for the taking. If he plays to his best ability, nobody can even dream of living with him. If he plays to 80%, he'd still be the man to beat.

There is one, diminishing ray of hope for layers. At least he has proved beatable at Augusta in the last couple of years. Third and second places can hardly be deemed failure, but nevertheless the layers triumphed. In my view though, harking back to previous close defeats is a weak argument as Tiger's form since shows marked improvement. I'm yet to be convinced that he is quite at the astonishing level of form shown when holding four consecutive Majors in 2000/2001, but he is not far off that peak.

Which could in theory get a bit boring. Thankfully, us gamblers have long learnt to be imaginative in such scenarios. Tiger may be a short price, but the betting and trading options surrounding him are endless. First there's the outright price. Currently at [2.3], his odds are unlikely to drift much further before he tees off. Statistically, that represents a fabulous price that would have yielded over 80% profit if backed in every event since last year's Open.

On the other hand, Tiger's 'correct' Masters odds since turning professional are actually [2.75], so a theoretical annual bet at this year's odds would have lost 16% overall. Even if you fancy Woods for the title, there is much to be said for waiting and hoping for a better price in-running. For three of his four victories in 2008, Woods has traded at over [7.0] in-running.

Another way of siding with Tiger without taking very short odds is to back the 'winning margin' market. He is guaranteed to be a tasty price here, and as we've seen in the past a rout is very much within his capablities. Most famously, he won the 2000 US Open by 15 shots in what remains the best performance I've ever seen. And remember he won at Augusta by 12 shots in his first year as a pro. Of his 13 major championships, five have been won by five shots or more.

And then there's potentially the sports story of 2008, a tilt at an unprecedented Grand Slam. Never has the level of expectation been so great with regards to this 'impossible' feat. Not only has almost every corner of opinion finally accepted that he is at least capable of such a feat, but this year's line-up of major venues has leant further credence to the theory.

Normally, by far Woods' two weakest links in the majors would be the US and British Opens. However, the former is being held this year at Torrey Pines, where he has been dominant, and the latter at Royal Birkdale where he went close as a links novice. The odds on winning all four have tumbled from the mid-30s in the New Year to just [13.5] now. Of at least equal value must be the [7.0] to win exactly three Majors as this leaves greater margin for error and savers.

VERDICT: So far clear of the rest that even [2.3] probably represents value. Don't use all the stake up pre-tournament though, as his odds may well drift a little in-running. And have a few bob on a winning margin of five shots or more.
ODDS: [2.3]