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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Tiger Woods won't win the Masters

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Tip: The Answer may lie with Big Phil. The Betfair Contrarian makes the case for the defence.

The gospel of Saint Matthew tells us that "It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God."

So miraculous has his form been thus far this year, Tiger Woods is probably ready to perform the camel trick. While he's measuring up such a shot, however, he needn't worry too much about winning this year's US Masters at Augusta, which begins on April 10. Not because it's already in the bag, but because The Contrarian doesn't reckon he's going to win it at all and these are the reason why...

Woods has under-delivered at Augusta in recent years

Golf is the ultimate anything-can-happen sport, as demonstrated by [100.0]+ outsider Zach Johnson going home with an extra jacket in his luggage last year. In spite of being favourite in each of the last five years, Woods has won just once (in 2005).

Has the Masters mastered him?

Only six-time champion Jack Nicklaus has more green jackets than Woods (four), yet Woods has been chasing Nicklaus' record for a while now and has failed to take advantage of opportunities to shoot it down. While Woods won an outrageous three of his first five Masters tournaments, he has only won once in the last five years, yet hasn't experienced problems repeating in other Majors during that period - he won the British Open in 2005 and 2006 and the PGA Championship in 2006 and 2007.

The Mickelson factor

Phil Mickelson is nowhere near Woods in terms of major successes, having won three to Woods' 13, but he has produced his best form at the Masters in recent years, winning two of the last four - more than Woods. Statistically at Augusta, Woods and Mickelson are near inseparable

* Woods' average round at Augusta is 71. Mickelson's is 71.24

* In 1044 holes at Augusta, Mickelson has hit 232 birdies (one every 4.5 holes), Woods has played 901 holes and has scored 214 birdies (one every 4.2).

And Mickelson is a better par five player at Augusta

A key part of Woods' dominance of golf comes from his ability to destroy par five holes, yet at Augusta, second favourite Phil Mickelson has left an impressive trail of destruction too. In 58 Masters rounds, Mickelson's cumulative score on par fives is 115 under par, after 50 rounds, Woods' par five record is a fractionally worse 93 under.

Mickelson is better at Woods' favourite hole

Stats say that Woods favourite hole at Augusta is the par five 13th, one of the toughest on the course. Tiger's career average score at this hole is 4.4, while Mickelson's is 4.22.

Mickelson has more eagles than Woods

Woods is rightly feared for the length and accuracy of his driving, but measured by eagles alone at Augusta, Mickelson is a more accurate power golfer - he has nine eagles to Woods' five.

And he has a mini-tradition of bouncing back from bad years

Last year was a disaster for Phil Mickelson, finishing tenth behind winner Zach Johnson, although he was effectively out of the running after a horrible first round. But it's worth remembering he had an unremarkable Masters in 2005, in which he also finished 10th, before coming back to win it the following year.

Dryness is potentially a leveller

The last two Masters tournaments that Woods won were both interrupted by bad weather. If the storms stay away this year, then the famously glassy and treacherous greens at Augusta will introduce a high degree of volatility into the scoring. Woods even held the lead at some stages of the final day last year, but missed crucial shots. One thing above all others makes top golfers miss crucial shots at Augusta - the vicious greens.