US Masters / The Betfair Contrarian / 08 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Betfair Contrarian offers a number of compelling reasons why the world number one won't win his first major after returning from injury...

The Contrarian is no fan of Tiger Hammer of the Underdogs Woods. This, after all, is the man who won the US Open last year on one leg. It's hardly worth making the effort to turn the telly on when the Woodster is doing his thing. Now hes got his wonky leg working again, its no great surprise that he has been installed as Masters favourite [3.65].

However, both Padraig Harrington and Phil Mickelson have upped their game in the world number one's absence, and the Northern Irish upstart Rory McIlroy has been hyped to a level that hasn't been seen since Woods arrived on the scene. So here's why Woods' Masters drought (he hasnt won since 2005) will continue:

There's a new top dog...

Golfers like Sergio Garcia, who have never won a major, were given a huge chance to break their ducks when it was confirmed that Woods would miss the final two of 2008. Nobody expected one man to up his game to such an extent that he would win both of them, but Padraig Harrington [19.5] did just that. By winning the Open he became the first man besides Woods to win the same major in consecutive years since Nick Faldo (Masters 1989, 1990). His PGA Championship success was even more poignant, making him the first man, Woods aside, to win consecutive majors in the same calendar year since Tom Watson in 1982.

...and hes been getting better at Augusta After failing to make the cut at the 2005 Masters...

Harrington has gradually improved his position with every passing year. In 2006, the Irishman finished joint 27th, then in 2007 he tied for seventh before improving again last year to claim joint fifth. Pattern fans should note that Woods won the Masters in 2001, having finished fifth the previous year and won the final two majors of 2000. And Europe is overdue at Augusta - the last European to win there was Jose Maria Olazabal in 1999.

Woods hasn't been winning

[3.65] may seem like a good price to back a 14-time major winner but Woods hasn't offered his backers value for money in recent years. The 33-year-old has started as favourite at all of the last six Masters, but has only won the event once during that time. Woods is often remembered for his past Masters success because it was the first major he won back in 1997, but he has won both the Open and PGA Championship twice over the last six years while struggling to replicate his past success at Augusta.

The last two winners have been huge outsiders...

While Woods hasn't justified his position as short-price favourite in recent years, those who have backed the right man have been able to make a ridiculous amount of money because the last two winners both started at massive prices. 2007 winner Zach Johnson was available at [200.00] before the tournament while last year's champion Trevor Immelman started at a stunning [350.00]. Betfair's Paul Krishnamurty recommends Andres Romero [140.00], Hunter Mahan [110.00], Miguel-Angel Jimenez [280.00] and Jeev Milkha Singh [240.00] as the best of this year's long shots.

..which is why McIlroy has been backed in so drastically

Northern Irishman Rory McIlroy has been backed in from 91 to 34 to be victorious on his debut at the Masters. The 19-year-old became the youngest player to enter the top 50 in the world rankings last year and he is now number 17. The last man to win the Masters at the first attempt was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Mr. Consistency can't be written off

Second favourite Phil Mickelson [10.5] has won two of the last five Masters, has finished in the top 10 at Augusta in nine of the last 10 years (compared to seven for Woods) and has been one of the top three in six of the last eight. Mickelson has an added incentive to win this year because if he comes first and Woods finishes outside the top five, he goes top of the world rankings.

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