US Masters Betting: Four to back to be First Round Leader

Who will turn the red numbers into a red-letter day? That's the question on everyone's mind ahead of the opening round of Augusta. And conveniently, it's the short-course question of this particular article. 

But while all the top players would readily sign for a first-round edge, none of them is motivated to acquire it at all costs. Far from it. Round one is positioning day: just get yourself handily placed after 18 before the 72-hole stagger unwinds. Taking single-handed command of the tournament can wait for Sunday. 

Golfers are a superstitious bunch. Small wonder, considering the vagaries of a capricious sport. Consequently, many of the game's best exponents shrink from an early position in the vanguard that increases both media scrutiny and personal expectation.

Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods are notable exceptions to this rule. And rightly so, considering some of their all wire-to-wire victories. After all, although first-round leaders often fail to finish the job, no position has a better strike-rate than the opening-round trailblazer.

Lee Westwood and Luke Donald, however, are indicative of a wider malaise among top tour pros, whose irrational fear of leading is more akin to a herd animal - the horse a jockey delivers late because it's scared of putting its head in front.

So with that in mind - and assured that this racing metaphor is worth stretching past breaking point - let's have a look at the runners for this initial cavalry charge. And more specifically, which key criteria will allow a player to lead from flag-fall - or in golfing terms, take the US Masters First Round Lead.

An early start time
The morning wave of players always gets the chance to launch a birdie barrage when Augusta is at its most benign - and its greens at their most receptive. Putting surfaces are also smooth and unspiked by foot-fall which increases with in heat of the afternoon competition. Play wears on and the greens rough up. 

Check the weather forecast
Wind velocity is also typically at a minimum early doors before kicking later in the day. Heavy showers and thunderstorms can inconvenience play and soften the course up for later campaigners, though. There's a 59% chance of such elements arriving on Thursday, but not until the afternoon. So the early advantage should be all the greater.

Consult first-round scoring statistics
Round One Scoring Average is a useful barometer but even better is Early Tee Time Scoring Average. It's a relatively recent stat among the mine on pgatour.com, but it's an excellent one. Tiger Woods and Brandt Snedeker head it but offer poor value.

Avoid the market leaders
And speaking of value, I prefer to search a little deeper down the betting lists for an outsider to unearth. The occasional trailblazing tendencies of Woods and McIlroy aside, favourites in this bracket are priced at restrictive odds for what is a sprint within a marathon. A top player will likely consolidate a promising start with conservative play as opposed to pushing for the peak in round one. Tiger, for example, has only broken 70 once in 16 Augusta outings on a Thursday. 

Players to Support

Kevin Na (8.22am, local time) Third in Early Scoring Average this term and one of the best putters around. Na has always had the talent and is not afraid to serve it up to more fancied opponents. Injury halted his progress after a belated breakthrough on tour, but he's now back in decent health and has been afforded an early wake-up call. 

Charl Schwartzel (9.39am) Champion of two years ago and arguably in the form of his life, the quiet South African lets his golf do the talking. Has been quicker out of the blocks on the European Tour than stateside, but certainly has the right mentality to keep pushing when others are dropping anchor and avoiding the errors. 

Webb Simpson (9.39am) Playing alongside Schwartzel and admittedly not my favourite player. However, I doubt the US Open champ is losing much sleep over that assessment. And I must admit that he has the length to bring this track to its knees. He is possibly the streakiest player on the circuit and is ninth in early-round scoring. If the muse is with him, he'll contend. 

Rickie Fowler (10.56am) Long and straight, this exciting youngster has already amassed some promising Augusta form. He will be keen to get a jump-start on his rivals and bolster his reputation as a great frontrunner.

So that's my customary four-off-the-tee. One of my outright picks, Justin Rose, just missed out on selection. The Englishman excels in first-round scoring, especially at the Masters where he has led after the initial skirmishes three times. Then again, seeing as my esteemed colleague Steve R has put him up, chances are you knew that already.

Recommended Bets
Back Kevin Na @ 180.0179/1
Back Charl Schwartzel @ 36.035/1
Back Webb Simpson @ 65.064/1
Back Rickie Fowler @ 65.064/1