US Masters / Steven Rawlings / 07 April 2009 /

Forget the victories of Woods and Faldo, Augusta means tight finishes so back accordingly.

Tiger Woods rekindled his magnificent short game at Bay Hill, and if that remains in good order, how many shots will he win the Masters by if his driving comes up to scratch too?

Well, even if the Tiger machine works to its full potential, it takes quite a leap of faith to imagine he'll get anywhere near his incredible 12 shot winning margin of 1997.

Just to show how amazing that was, the second largest winning margin in the last 25 years was the five shot victory by Faldo the year before - when poor old Norman endured that staggering collapse.

There have been no four shot margins in the last quarter of a century and only four three shot wins, so it's quite sensible to expect a relatively tight finish.

In that period there have been five play-offs and six one shot victories, with the most common occurrence being a two shot win, of which there's been eight, and I see little value in looking elsewhere for a bet.

It looks likely that the scenario will be a value price, currently [4.8], and I'd expect it to trade much shorter in-running. And if you're just looking for a fun bet you could well get a run for your money right up until the 72nd hole.

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