Playing The Masters Odds: Hole-in-one market

US Masters / Steven Rawlings / 05 April 2009 / 1

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It's all about the 16th, says Steve Rawlings.

In the previous 72 renewals of the Masters there have only been 19 holes in one, so on the face of it, even contemplating backing the scenario occurring at less than [3.0] should be a bad idea.

It's not quite that simple though - there have been five in the last five years. In 2004 there were three, and two of those came within ten minutes of each-other when Padraig Harrington and Kirk Triplett both birdied the 16th hole on Sunday, playing in consecutive groups.

The key is that 16th hole. In recent years it's been set up on a Sunday so that a hole-in-one is far from unlikely, so clicking the blue button next to the word yes may not be a bad idea after all, even at a price as low as [2.48].

But I favour trying to be a bit greedier and waiting until Sunday, by which time the price will have drifted considerably. The really brave may even want to lay yes or back no for the first three days and then switch, but a word of warning, if you'd have played it that way last year you'd have come unstuck as Ian Poulter birdied the 16th on day one.

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OJ | 08 April 2009

"Birdied"? Exciting market, though...