US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 17 February 2009 /

This year's Masters odds offer a revealing insight into the state of Tiger's competition at the top of the game, and Paul Krishnamurty sees few reasons for Phil, Ernie or Vijay to get excited.

At last, it would seem we have the news that every golf fan, punter, sponsor or official of the ailing PGA Tour was waiting to hear, and it comes from a man better placed than almost anyone to know.

According to his old mate and regular practice partner Mark O'Meara, Tiger Woods is ready to return to action following the birth of his second child on Sunday. We still don't know the exact date of his return, but next week's Accenture WGC Matchplay, (a sponsor with whom Tiger has a longstanding relationship), looks the favourite. If not, the next WGC event at Doral in three weeks looks the likeliest date.

With just seven weeks until the Masters, the timing is perfect. If he needs two or three tournaments to fully regain sharpness, there is enough time. I've written before of my scepticism as to whether he can instantly regain his best form, but O'Meara's words may force me to think again.

According to the dual Major champion: "His legs bothered him for about three years and it had been pretty bad. I think the break was probably the best thing that ever happened to him....I think he's going to be come back better than ever...That's just my opinion, and I can be wrong. But most of the time with Tiger, I've been right."

Furthermore, the fact that nobody has really taken advantage in his absence has forced me to have a rethink. Having laid Woods for the Masters at [3.7], I'm closing that position at [4.0]. When I had the initial lay, it seemed Sergio Garcia might be chasing Tiger's No.1 spot hard by now, but the Spaniard's putting nightmares appear to have returned. While I still rate Garcia a decent bet for the US and British Opens, Augusta's notorious greens will probably be a task too far.

Sergio isn't the only struggling star by any means either. In fact, its hard to see exactly who is going to lay down a challenge to Woods should the great man return at even 75% of peak form. All of his older rivals look to have their best days behind them. In particular, Ernie Els looks a pale shadow of the man who won three Majors and finished runner-up to Tiger so many times. The way Els is putting at the moment he will head to Augusta as a no-hoper.

I'm loathe to write off the ageless Vijay Singh, but his poor effort on return from injury at Pebble Beach last week doesn't bode well at all. It won't help Singh's major prospects that his next two events are ones where he's consistently struggled over the years, starting with Riviera this week. Currently [34.0] for the Masters, it's not impossible that the 2000 champion starts at [50.0] or more.

Most significantly Phil Mickelson, arguably Tiger's greatest rival, is in crisis at the moment. Three starts so far in 2009, all in events where's he's won in the past, have produced three poor efforts. His driving is too inaccurate, and confidence with the putter has disappeared. Again, Mickelson is set to start at his biggest odds for the Masters in at least a decade.

Almost by default, Woods' main rival for Augusta appears to be Padraig Harrington, who will be bidding for his third consecutive major. Some will always try and devalue the first two because Tiger was absent, so a first Masters title would rank as the high point of an already great career. Simply because of his form in the Majors, Harrington's odds around [16.0] are holding up, but it would be impossible to make a case for him on his form outside those elite events. Its 21 months since he last won a non-Major.

Even the young pretenders, Anthony Kim and Camilo Villegas, have failed to further their reputations yet this season. Kim, favourite for this week's Johnnie Walker Classic, has gone off the boil in recent weeks but is expected to bounce back soon. Nevertheless, he can only be seen as a Masters outsider as an Augusta debutant. As for Villegas, his two previous visits to the course have seen him miss the cut.

Such lack of confidence behind any of the main pretenders has meant the only positive Masters market mover in recent weeks has been 19 year-old Rory McIlroy, whose odds of [44.0] are frankly ridiculous given his inexperience. It may well be that McIlroy eventually becomes the man to depose Tiger as World No.1, but given the events of the past few months, it would seem that Woods is going to stay there for some time yet.

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