Masters Tips: The pick of day one's three-balls

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Make master Mickelson and debutant Duke your day one bankers, says Paul Krishnamurty.

10pts KEN DUKE @ [2.04] (Vs Campbell, Zoeller)
Start time: 13.55 (BST)

Its not very often that a 40-year-old who has never won on either main tour, making his first appearance on a course where debutants notoriously struggle, would start hot favourite against two former major champions. Yet as ridiculous as it sounds, Ken Duke looks one of the best bets on the opening day of the Masters.

Quite simply, his two opponents look so weak that Duke may be able to win this three-ball with a three-over par 75 or even worse. One of them, 57-year-old Fuzzy Zoeller, was the last debutant to win at Augusta way back in 1979, and that's the only reason he still gets into this prestigious event. He hasn't scored less than 77 here since the opening round of 2002, and in the last ten years he has made just one cut and hit two par rounds.

Duke's other opponent Michael Campbell is one of the game great enigmas. He is either brilliant, as when winning the US Open and World Matchplay titles in 2005, or he is appalling. Currently, Cambo is going through another of his characteristic disastrous streaks where he seems to lose all interest in the game. His only completed start in 2009 was a fortnight ago at Bay Hill, and he could only muster rounds of 77 and 76. Even at his best Campbell hated Augusta, missing all eight cuts here and only once shooting par or better.

As for Duke himself, there isn't much to recommend him other than the fact that he's been nowhere near as bad lately. Generally, he's a straight hitting mid-division PGA Tour player who makes most of his cuts, which should be enough. And there is some encouragement from Duke's 13th place at last year's PGA at Oakland Hills, another tough major venue with very fast greens.


5pts HENRIK STENSON @ 2.5 (Vz Rose, Cabrera)
Start time: 15.12 (BST)

All three of this group have shown high class form in US majors, but on recent form, Stenson looks by far the likeliest to produce his best this week. Big-hitting Stenson is ideally favoured by a long course with wide fairways and four reachable par-5s, and after the ideal warm-up in third place at last week's Houston Open, looks a strong candidate for the green jacket.

In contrast, both of his opponents have been some way off their best lately. Rose will no doubt have his supporters, as he has led the Masters after the first day on three of his four visits. That's quite a remarkable statistic, but one based on better times for the 2007 Order of Merit champion. His Houston warm-up was far less encouraging, with 52nd place a very disappointing result having started strongly.

Cabrera also has plenty of Augusta previous, but again has been off colour for some time. The former US Open champion hasn't made a top-10 on either the PGA or European Tour since 2007.


3pts GREG NORMAN @ 4.4 (Vs Westwood, Langer)
Start time: 14.50

Few of the opening day groups will attract a bigger following than this one, with fans desperate to see Greg Norman on what will probably be his last visit to Augusta. But a bet at [4.4] is more than simply a case of heart ruling head - the Shark is no forlorn hope by any means.

The 54-year-old doesn't play much anymore, but has apparently been through a typically rigorous training and practice regime. As we saw at last year's Open where he held the lead going into Sunday and made the frame, he is still capable of a very high standard of golf; much more so than other seniors. Norman played in Houston last week, and while a final round 81 took the shine off, there was much to like about his 71/69/70 start.

And this three-ball is definitely winnable. Langer may be a class apart on the seniors tour, but when the tees go back he tends to struggle nowadays. The German legend has missed his last three Masters cuts, with a best score of 74. As for Westwood, while he obviously deserves favouritism, Augusta has never been his favourite track. He's only once made the top-10 here in nine attempts.


8pts PHIL MICKELSON (Vs Villegas, Furyk)
Start time: 15.45

If this three-ball was being played on any course other than Augusta, I wouldn't touch Phil Mickelson at [2.24] with a bargepole. However, his form around this unique layout is so overwhelmingly superior to that of this rivals that it actually represents good value on this occasion.

Mickelson's tournament and course credentials are well-known. His last eight Masters have produced two wins, and six top-5 finishes, and on the basis of some impressive 2009 form, Lefty looks by far the biggest threat to Tiger Woods. Forget last week's missed cut; all that did was confirm to me that he is a man to oppose when his focus is elsewhere.

Alternatively, Furyk's last two poor results were out of character and must be a cause for concern. In any case, as the shortest-hitter amongst the leading players, this has always been Furyk's weakest major. As for Villegas, while he may be an outstanding prospect, his course record to date is disastrous. Four rounds have produced an aggregate of 27 over par, and until the Colombian star proves he can handle these lightning fast putting surfaces, he must be one to oppose at the Masters.