Masters Odds 2009: The Great Tiger Woods debate, is 3.35 value?

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty takes an in-depth look at the price for the world no. 1 to land a fifth Masters title...

When he was sidelined for eight months with what could have been a career-threatening injury, it was only fair to ask the question - was this the beginning of the end of the Tiger Woods era? I'm perfectly happy to admit that I was one of those asking that question, even wondering aloud whether Tiger would now be able to overhaul Jack Nicklaus' all-time record of 18 major titles.

Ten rounds of golf later, all of that sounds a little ridiculous. For my money, the Tiger that won his sixth Arnold Palmer Invitational title a fortnight ago was as good as ever. Perhaps better. Before the knee surgery, Tiger had already become totally dominant despite playing through the pain barrier. The fact he can now play all the shots without pain represents a daunting prospect for his rivals.

Just as important is the fact that he showed at Bay Hill that he retains that genius ability to conjure up magic when most needed. His performance in wearing down leader Sean O'Hair, capped with a typical final-hole birdie on one of the game's toughest finishing holes, was up there amongst the all-time great Tiger moments.

Nevertheless, while we can all agree that he's back in his rightful position well clear at the head of the betting, punters remain as divided as ever in the ongoing debate of whether his odds represent 'value'. In my view, [3.35] is a perfectly decent price. Indeed its a full point higher than last year's starting price. Having won this title four times from 12 appearances as a professional, a bet every year at these odds would have shown a small overall profit.

But while those stats just about support a bet on Woods, layers can justifiably point to the fact that he hasn't won the Masters since 2005. There is a theory around that Augusta has been successfully 'Tiger proofed'; that since this grand old course has been lengthened and toughened, it now favours the tactician over the bomber. The clearest evidence to support this argument lies in Zach Johnson's shock triumph in 2007. Short, straight hitting Johnson certainly was a break from the Masters-winning norm.

No doubt Augusta is a very different animal these days. It's become one of the highest scoring events of the season, and in some ways closer resembles the US Open than the Masters of the last decade, where Woods was regularly winning at double-digits under-par. But the idea that this course no longer suits Tiger simply doesn't stand up.

After all, he's finished runner-up in the last two renewals, despite playing well below his best, with last year a particularly frustrating affair for those of us who took short odds about Tiger. Whereas shock champion Trevor Immelman's putter was on fire all week, Woods could barely hole anything, and for what seemed like the first time ever, missed two crucial short ones down the back nine on Sunday.

A much stronger argument against backing Woods pre-tournament lies in the fact that he nearly always trades bigger in-running. The only layers who suffered from Tiger's Bay Hill win were those that didn't 'green up' when he drifted out to double figures. This strategy is very hard to knock, even if you fancy Woods to win the event, and is the only thing deterring me from a sizeable bet on Tiger at [3.35]. Whatever happens, I will ensure he's on my side over the weekend, but I think it will pay to wait a while.

Instead, I'm playing the long-term markets on Tiger's majors performance over the season. Following the Masters, the second major of the year will be the US Open, held at Bethpage Black in June. The last time the event was held at that beast of a course, Woods led all the way for a comfortable triumph. I reckon that by the time that's over all the speculation will be, yet again, on Tiger's bid for a unique grand slam. So my plan is to play the 'Tiger Specials 2009' market; with a bet on 'Three Majors Only' at [13.5] for starters. If he wins this week, those odds will shorten considerably. If not, Bethpage will offer a second chance.