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Masters Day One Preview: The pick of the first round three-ball betting

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Paul Krishnamurty has four cracking bets from Thursday's three-balls

10pts STEPHEN AMES (VS GREEN, WOOSNAM) - STARTING TIME 16.29

One of my early strategies in Major championships is to look for players to oppose in three-balls. The demands of any Major venue are always punishing enough to expose the weaknesses in a struggling player's game. The Masters is probably the best too, because there are always at least 20 or so complete no-hopers to oppose - in the form of ex-champions way beyond their peak.

As Ian Woosnam has aged, for instance, he's missed his last six Augusta cuts. This more or less converts his three-ball into a two-ball, between course debutant Richard Green and Stephen Ames. Again, Green looks a player to oppose. Its never easy for debutants to immediately work out Augusta's complexities, especially those like Green who are weak enough on ordinary greens, let alone these brutal putting surfaces.

He'll be doing well to break 74 on his first round, which gives [1.9] chance Ames a decent margin of error. Another reason for confidence in the Canadian is that he's performed pretty well in 11th and 24th place here over the last two seasons, and showed a decent level form on his latest start in a WGC event.

8pts HUNTER MAHAN @ 2.2 (VS LONARD, MIZE) - 13.33

Another ex-champ unlikely to get any change out of Augusta this week is 1987 winner Larry Mize. To be fair, Mize still performs to a competitive level, at least good enough to finish 10th recently in a weak PGA Tour event. He's a very short hitter though, and has struggled badly since the course was toughened up, missing six of his last seven Masters cuts.

I doubt Peter Lonard will do much better though. Though a class act on a very different type of golf course, Lonard is one of those dodgy putters that has never, and is unlikely to ever, prosper around Augusta. He's never hit lower than 74 in eight rounds on this course, so again this should afford a decent margin of error for the [2.2] favourite Hunter Mahan.

Not only is Mahan the best player of the three in general terms, but in stark contrast he is fancied to go well this week. As I've already pointed out in my 'Find Me a 100 Winner' column, Mahan performed so well here as an amateur back in 2003, and could be one to keep an eye on now he's a rising force at the highest level.

4pts PAUL CASEY @ 3.5 (VS SCOTT, GOOSEN) - STARTING TIME 18.19

As the outsider of three, Paul Casey could be worth a small punt to overturn his supposed betters here. I'm not prepared to jump on board the Adam Scott bandwagon just yet, especially until he's proved he has the short game for Augusta. There's little in his previous here to suggest that's the case.

Nor am I convinced that, despite one good week at Doral, Retief Goosen is going to maintain his fine course record. The conditions in Miami that week were completely different, and his lack of any sort of form for the past year also cannot be overlooked.

In fairness, neither has Casey played to anywhere near his potential recently, hence his [3.5] odds. Nevertheless, the Masters will always represent Casey's best chance of a Major, as this huge driving, confident putter has the ideal game for Augusta where he's already notched two top-10s from just three visits. He played well enough a couple of months ago at the World Matchplay, so hopefully the favourable surroundings can spark a return to form.

5pts VIJAY SINGH @ 2.4 (VS STRICKER, CINK) - STARTING TIME 18.30

Though all three of these PGA Tour stalwarts have performed consistently well in 2008, Vijay's record at Augusta is leagues ahead of either Stricker or Cink. The only players this week who even come close to matching Singh's impressive run of recent Masters finishes are Woods, Mickelson and Goosen.

Following on from top-three finishes in his last two events, I'll be very surprised if Singh doesn't have yet another good week at Augusta, in keeping with the every year of the last decade. With Tiger in the field, he's going to have to produce something special to land his second Masters title, but a sixth top-8 in seven years looks highly probable.

In contrast, neither Stricker nor Cink have ever even looked like challenging at Augusta, and have recorded just two top-10s between them in 17 visits. 2.4 looks a very fair price about the stand-alone favourite.