US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 31 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty assesses the chances of Garcia, Scott, Choi and Stenson

SERGIO GARCIA

When Sergio was racing down the 17th fairway at Medinah in hot pursuit of Tiger and the USPGA Championship, few would have predicted that, nine years down the line, he'd still be searching for his first Major championship. Many would now hand him that unwanted tag that Mickelson carried around for years, and that Monty will take with him into retirement, the one that reads "Best player never to win a Major".

The problem with this tag is that it assumes Garcia is a serious contender for any Major, which I'm afraid to say he just isn't. Certainly as long as he putts to a sub-professional standard, and even if he overcomes that debilitating handicap there are serious temperamental issues to address. Consecutive final-day demises at the Open Championship could weigh heavily on his memory for years to come.

Sergio retains a long game that rivals Tiger and if somehow he could neutralise the psychological and putting problems even for just the one week, he would be a match for anyone. But having made only two top-10s in nine previous Augusta trips, the Spaniard looks highly unlikely to follow in the footsteps of former Spanish Masters champions Ballesteros and Olazabal.

VERDICT: One to oppose, especially on these brutal greens.
ODDS: 70.0

* * *

ADAM SCOTT

Almost from the moment Scott turned professional, his swing and shared coach in Butch Harmon prompted frequent comparisons with Tiger Woods. Now with an impressive tally of 13 worldwide victories to his name at the relatively tender age of 27, Scott finds himself marked down by many as one of the only players around capable of laying down a challenge to Woods.

But before he can start thinking seriously about taking on the very best consistently, he has to prove he can even do that once in a major championship. Quite simply, given his wider record and world ranking, his majors record is shocking. To date, Scott has made the top-10 in a major championship only four times, and never seriously challenged for one.

Anyone who saw him hit arguably the round of the year to date - a final day 61 to win the Qatar Masters - could be shocked by that poor record, but there is a convincing explanation. As in Qatar, nearly all of Scott's best golf has come in target golf conditions at which he excels. Present him with an old-fashioned golf course, or particularly one with extremely fast greens and Scott's weaknesses come into play.

Its no coincidence that, despite being the top-ranked Australian for several years, he is yet to win in his home country on what are always hard and fast golf courses. Nor that his sole respectable Masters effort, ninth in 2002, came after the course had been soaked and the greens somewhat tamed.

VERDICT: Unless it buckets down, Scott is well worth taking on in the various place, nationality and match bet markets.
ODDS: [40.0]

* * *

KJ CHOI

The most improved player in the world, Choi has become Vijay Singh's first ever rival for the title of Best Asian Golfer. In fact according to the latest world rankings, the Korean is one place ahead at No.8. Though much as was the case when the Fijian was emerging, the Western media have been slow to pick up on Choi, and consequentially he has usually been under-estimated by layers.

Seven PGA Tour wins, including three in the last 10 months, have made people sit up and take notice though. He sits a close fourth on the PGA Tour money list, and the next logical step must be to join the exclusive club of major winners. Choi's biggest asset is his brilliant long-iron play, an essential attribute to conquering Augusta and therefore a good reason to suggest the Masters may represent his best opportunity.

Certainly his best major to date came here, when finishing third to Mickelson in 2004. And he's definitely a more accomplished player nowadays, more experienced and better equipped to handle the final day limelight.

VERDICT: No obvious negatives to speak of, so Choi looks a strong contender. And as ever, the market may under-estimate his prospects.
ODDS: 65.0

* * *

HENRIK STENSON

Its still early days for Stenson, who is playing only his third Masters, but there is enough expectation around this brilliant Swedish player to think a breakthrough in the Majors will happen sooner rather than later. Not only does he possess a long game to rival the very best, when he's been confronted with high pressure positions against the big boys he's looked perfectly comfortable.

If it wasn't for Tiger, I'm confident Stenson would have retained his WGC Matchplay title in February. Woods ended his ten-match winning run at the Tucson venue, but it was a close affair and the younger man emerged once again with credit. A year earlier, he'd also seen off Tiger and Ernie to win the Dubai Desert Classic.

Augusta could present the most likely Major venue for Stenson to truly signal his arrival in the game. As a very long driver with a classy touch around the greens, he could murder these par-5s. Indeed last year he looked a serious contender until a 77 on Saturday meant he had to go home with what was still a perfectly respectable 17th place.

VERDICT: Well capable of scoring heavily on the key holes at Augusta, and a decent trading option.
ODDS: [75.0]

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