Masters Betting Day Two: Euro stars can press forward as Woods stutters

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty talks us through the best betting opportunities as we go into day two of the US Masters with Tiger Woods yet to find his best form

EURO STARS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE AS WOODS STUTTERS

Well, at least it doesn't look like a walkover. A stuttering start from Tiger Woods has given this year's Masters a more open feel than it had beforehand, even if he remains an overwhelming favourite. Thursday's short-term trading winners were the brave layers who defied the formbook to force his starting price out to [2.5]. If they didn't trade out for profit at its peak of [3.85], the opportunity is still there at [2.92].

Though he certainly wasn't in vintage form today, having been +2 with four to play, Woods and his supporters must have been pretty happy to finish on Even par. That's only four shots off the lead, and most importantly few of Tiger's closest rivals capitalised on this opportunity to build a lead. Course specialists Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen both used their class to similarly get the best possible score from otherwise average rounds, but are just a shot ahead of the favourite. The only player near the head of the pre-tournament market holding a substantial lead over Woods is Britain's Justin Rose, to whom I shall return shortly.

In very good scoring conditions, just 18 from a field of 94 went round under par. I would tend to agree with Paul Casey's first-round assessment that this is as good scoring as we're going to see all week. Casey actually said that, should the predicted bad weather arrive on Sunday, the winner could finish over par. That's almost certainly overstating the difficulty, but my prediction now is that a score of -6 will be good enough to win.

I doubt too many will break 70 today, which suggests the halfway lead will be held by somebody close to it already and certainly nobody beyond the 32 players who went round in par or better. And while it may still be early days, the stats show that its essential to be in a strong position after the first two rounds. No winner this century has started round 3 in lower than 4th place on a course that has shown time and again that it is one of the hardest to play 'catch-up'.

Justin Rose leads the Masters after R1 for the third time, sharing top-spot with Trevor Immelman. Given the appalling record of first-round leaders - its over two decades since one last won the Masters - I'd basically prefer to look elsewhere for the winner, however his very late tee-off time could present a short-term trading opportunity. I'll be surprised if, by the time he tees off after 7pm, anyone is more than a couple of shots ahead of him. If I'm right about that, Rose's price will be at least a couple of points shorter than the current [10.5].

Nor is Rose the sole European contender by any means. Lee Westwood shared the lead at one stage on his way to a -3 total, while Ian Poulter for once gave us a talking point beyond his clothes and hilariously high opinion of himself by scoring an ace on the 16th. A couple of other Europeans strike me as the best value trades currently on offer.

Firstly, I shall belatedly follow the advice of my fellow columnist, The Punter http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/us-masters/augusta-odds-the-punters-early-picks-for-the-maste-090408.html, who has already tipped Robert Karlsson at [600]. The lanky Swede, who impressed on his Augusta debut last year, started with a solid round of [70.0] to sit two shots off the pace. As another with a late tee-time, its easy to imagine Karlsson getting off to a decent start and quickly challenging for the lead. In this scenario, a position taken at the current odds of [140.0] would leave plenty of trading options.

As for Casey, he's another who has shown his liking for Augusta in the past and could be under-estimated at odds around [70]. He's currently tied with Mickelson three shots off the pace, finishing in good spirits after salvaging a par on the final hole. The consensus yesterday was that Augusta is playing extremely long this year. Big-hitting, super-fit Casey has the required skills and endurance to hang around on that leaderboard over the weekend.

Onto the three-balls, one win and two dead-heats yielded five points profit on day one. My second day nap is huge-hitting debutant JB Holmes, who started his Augusta career with a perfectly respectable 73. Holmes is up against veteran Sandy Lyle and John Rollins. At one stage Sandy was -3 and threatening the lead before falling back on the closing holes. As with the other seniors, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Lyle tires today and will have his work cut out to get close to repeating yesterday's heroics. With Rollins, who has broken 74 only twice in eleven Augusta rounds, scoring four shots worse than Holmes yesterday and conceding a substantial distance advantage, JB looks a very strong favourite and good value at [2.1].

SELECTIONS

OUTRIGHT

Paul Casey @ 70.0
Robert Karlsson @ 140.0

3-BALL - STARTING TIME 13.44

10pts JB Holmes @ 2.1