Masters 2009 Betting Portfolio: Swedish World Cup heroes look the pick of continental Europe

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

On a course which has consistently exposed his putting weaknesses, Sergio Garcia does not represent value at Augusta and, while his Spanish compatriot might be a shrewder pick, Paul Krishnamurty recommends that we look North for the continent's best Masters bets.

Back in the 80s and 90s, continental Europeans made a bigger impact in this major than any other. That famous trio of Ryder Cup heroes; Seve Ballesteros, Bernhard Langer and Jose-Maria Olazabal; won six Masters titles between them, and were almost permanent fixtures on the leaderboard at Augusta.

This century though, despite ever-increasing top-class representation, the success has dried up. Much of that must be due to the persistent failure in this major of the man universally tipped as the next great Spanish player; Sergio Garcia. For all the expectation he's carried on his shoulders since his teenage years, Garcia has just two top-10s to show from ten visits to Augusta. Once again, Garcia starts amongst the market leaders, but as I've argued elsewhere, he hardly represents betting value on a course that has repeatedly exposed his putting weaknesses in the past.

In the long run, Spain and Germany should have two regular Masters candidates in the form of Martin Kaymer and Alvaro Quiros. Both are already multiple winners, and both would appear to possess the ideal long-hitting game to murder the par-fives around here. However, their task looks an impossible one, given their lack of experience around this tough course.

For now, it makes more sense to focus on European players with more top-level experience. Nobody fits that bill better than Miguel-Angel Jiminez, a man who seems to get better with age. Jiminez has excelled as he has gained further experience around here, making the top-11 four times in the last seven years and repeatedly contending for 'Top European' honours. Last year's effort was particularly outstanding, scoring better than anyone over the last three days to finish eighth after an opening 77 made him appear a certainty to miss the cut. So far in 2009, Jiminez hasn't quite hit the heights of last spring, which also yielded the prestigious BMW Championship title at Wentworth, but it would be dangerous to write 'The Mechanic' off just yet.

Sweden boast a particularly strong hand nowadays, and last year's World Cup winning duo Robert Karlsson and Henrik Stenson both look plausible champions at Augusta. In winning the Order of Merit, Karlsson was arguably the best player in the world throughout 2008. Starting with eighth place here, the 39-year-old went on a run that saw him contend virtually every week during a golden summer. At his best, Karlsson has the ideal game for Augusta; long-hitting and brilliant with the putter. Thirtieth and eighth is not a bad start to a player's Augusta career by any means, and its certainly not unreasonable to expect further improvement now he knows the course better.

Likewise, while Stenson [44.0] hasn't yet hit the heights some of his supporters once predicted, his early record at Augusta is still quite promising. Having missed the cut on his debut, he's finished 17th in each of the last two years; promising much better at one stage in 2007. Rather like his compatriot Karlsson, Stenson also would appear to have the perfect Augusta credentials; a very long hitter with a magical touch around the greens. And as we saw when he slaughtered a world-class field at last year's Nedbank Challenge by nine shots, on a long course with four reachable par-5s, Stenson can be quite devastating.

He's already won a World Matchplay, so we also know Stenson has the temperament for the biggest events. The next stage is a breakthrough in the majors, and having made the frame in last year's Open and PGA, he could be ready.