US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 31 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Misfiring form of Harrington and Garcia leaves Big Phil as the big gun most likely to upset Woods' bid for a fifth Augusta crown, says Paul Krishnamurty.

When Padraig Harrington was winning his second consecutive major at Oakland Hills last August, his third out of the last six, it seemed the main narrative for the 2009 Masters was cast in stone. Ireland's finest would head to Augusta chasing the third leg of a sort of 'Grand Slam', bidding to achieve something only Tiger Woods has ever managed: holding all four major titles simultaneously. The fact that we already knew there would be doubts surrounding Woods so soon after a long injury lay-off made this once unlikely proposition considerably more realistic.

Seven months down the line and that narrative has changed somewhat. Harrington has slipped to fifth in the world and nobody considers him the main rival to Woods. That honour must go to Phil Mickelson, the twice former Masters champion who recently added two more prestigious titles to his portfolio to close in on Woods' once unassailable lead in the world rankings.

Mickelson started the season slowly, leading some of us to wonder whether he was in decline, and soon to be overtaken by a younger generation. However, a successful defence of his Northern Trust Open title at sometimes major venue Riviera, swiftly followed by a first World Golf Championship victory, has very much re-affirmed his credentials. This is his favourite major by far, with two wins, six top-threes and ten top-10s from 13 Masters appearances. Coupled with his recent resurgence, that outstanding bank of course form points to a very strong bid for a third green jacket.

Where Mickelson has at last stepped up to the plate, Harrington has been strangely anonymous since landing the PGA title, and hasn't looked like winning anywhere during that period. His supporters will no doubt point to the fact that Harrington has increasingly centred his entire campaign around the majors, and has rarely peaked outside of them over the past couple of years.

That's a very fair point, but surely as punters we'd need a little more to go on than simply rumours of 'looking good in practice'. Considering the Masters has always been Harrington's weakest major, never finishing better than fifth and never seriously challenging in nine attempts, it's very hard to make a case for the Irishman at the relatively skinny price of [20.0].

Harrington isn't the only player whose star has waned recently. Virtually anyone with an opinion was tipping 2009 as the year when Sergio Garcia would finally win a major, and perhaps even challenge Woods. To be fair, it is still early in the season and Garcia could yet come good, but he hasn't played anywhere near to his peak yet and worryingly, his putting nightmares appear to have returned. A weakness in that department is never going to serve you well around Augusta.

It may be that Europe's leading pair have been eclipsed by Australian Geoff Ogilvy, who has started the season on fire. After finally laying a longstanding jinx to rest by winning his first title on home soil last December, Ogilvy slaughtered a high-class field of 2008 PGA Tour winners to land the opening event of the season in Hawaii. Impressive as those performances were, it was a masterful destruction of several top-class opponents at the World Matchplay that really elevated him into the game's elite and a prominent market position for Augusta.

That was Ogilvy's third WGC title, which in addition to the 2006 US Open title very much confirms the Aussie as a man for the big occasion. He's yet to produce his very best at Augusta, with 16th his best finish from three tries and that is represented in his price at around [30.0], but it would take a very brave man to write him off in this form.