Masters 2009 Betting Portfolio: Kim can be the first of the next generation to break through

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 05 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

A quintet of young stars have made their names over the last year but, of the group, it is Anthony Kim who looks primed to conquer Augusta, says Paul Krishnamurty.

Not since Tiger Woods changed the golfing world forever with that incredible 12 stroke victory in 1997 has such anticipation surrounded a young player. In just 18 months as a professional, 19-year-old Rory McIlroy has established himself as the leader of a group of brilliant youngsters universally tipped to dominate the game in the years ahead.

Since winning his first professional event at the Dubai Desert Classic, against a world-class field and after several near misses, punters have steamed into McIlroy, and the Northern Irish prodigy goes into his first Masters at odds of just [44.0]. That's the same mark as the youngster who also briefly carried the 'Next Tiger Woods' tag. Anthony Kim ([55.0]) was all the rage over the winter, after winning two prestigious PGA titles in only his second year on the tour, and starring on his Ryder Cup debut.

Nor are McIlroy and Kim the only hot prospects on show. Camilo Villegas ([48.0]) and Martin Kaymer ([190.0]) also look highly likely candidates for this and every other major over the forthcoming decades, and having won two events each in 2008 will be on many punters' shortlists for Augusta. And though he has not made anywhere near the global impact just yet, teenager Danny Lee ([340.0]) will be well worth keeping an eye out for on his first US start.

Despite all the hype though, all the historical evidence suggests these young prospects are up against it in the Masters. No debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Tiger Woods had only played Augusta once before landing his first title, but besides him no winner during that 30 year period had previously played less than twice on this course.

This trend is easy to explain. Augusta, perhaps more than any course, favours experience. A player could chip and putt around some of those lightning fast, undulating greens a thousand times and still be none the wiser. There is a massive emphasis on short-game excellence, which is an area where young, inexperienced players tend to fall short. Furthermore, just the fact that this venue is used every year must place debutants at a significant disadvantage compared to the rest of the field.

Of the five young stars mentioned above, my preference would be for Kim. At least he has already won on championship golf courses in the form of Quail Hollow and Congressional. The latter occasionally hosts US Opens, while the former would make for a great Open or PGA venue. And after his heroics at the Ryder Cup, it seems safe to assume he won't be fazed by the pressure of the spotlight.

McIlroy will surely win a Masters at some stage, and is already good enough to win a major. However, I just wonder how he will cope with these greens, and would much prefer to back him for the Open as he knows the challenge of links golf inside out.

Villegas has actually played here twice already, but is hard to fancy on the basis of those efforts. He failed to shoot par in missing both cuts, with his aggregate score amounting to an embarrassing 27 over par. Kaymer also missed the cut on last year's debut, though not quite so badly. He's improved in the meantime and that should show in his scoring, but this remains a huge leap up from the Euro Tour events where he's made his name.

Finally, Lee is a complete rank outsider and just making the cut would be an achievement. Nevertheless, expect the young man from New Zealand to make plenty of friends and admirers. His performance in winning the Johnnie Walker Championship in February was quite outstanding. Just like Woods, (and McIlroy and Kim for that matter), Lee appears to possess that rare ability of finding a special shot when most needed, and looked completely unfazed by the pressure.