US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 April 2012 /

Our [100.0] winner column is all about landing long-shot bets - laying as we go to build profit on either side so whether our outsiders win or lose we show a profit. Here is a trio to back at the 2012 Masters...

Returning from a week off, timed to recharge batteries ahead of the season's first major, I was greeted by mixed news. First the good news - in my absence Steve Rawlings picked up the baton and improved this column's 2012 stats by eight units. Annoyingly, however, when I went to check the Masters market, the odds about a couple of long planned triple-figure picks had collapsed. Geoff Ogilvy and Bo Van Pelt remain on my shortlist for this week, but at 50-odd points shorter, the trading value may have gone. Instead, I'm going in with the following trio.

Firstly for a prolific world-class player, arguably the best matchplay exponent around, Ian Poulter is long overdue another strong showing in a major championship and after finishing third behind Tiger at Bay Hill a fortnight ago, may have perfectly timed his run into form. Although he's yet to seriously challenge in seven visits to Augusta, there is enough in a solid course record to suggest he can cope with its demands.

Seven visits have yielded nothing worse than 33rd and two years ago, he was bang in contention at halfway before a poor weekend performance dropped him back to tenth. Masters winners generally require plenty of course experience, and Poulter is exactly the sort who seems to improve each year.

Odds of [280.0] about Fred Couples are all about the 1992 champion's age and nothing to do with his ability to play the course. By finishing sixth and 15th in the past two Masters, Couples has shown he remains a serious candidate on arguably his favourite course. Unlike most older players, Freddy is not handicapped by a relative lack of power off the tee and after winning on the Champions Tour a fortnight ago, we know his form is good.

Finally, although there are no positives to be drawn from his first couple of Masters attempts, Kevin Na is simply too big at [370.0]. Augusta is ultimately about short game brilliance and Na has one of the classiest greenside touches around, ranking seventh for scrambling and 14th for greens in regulation amongst this line-up. Recent form is good too, finishing fourth last time at Bay Hill, his third top-five of the season.

So far as the trading plan is concerned, with such strong favourites in the field it could be hard to get matched in single figures so I'm setting the first lay target at a less ambitious mark than usual. If any of our trio shorten to [20.0], we'll more than double our outlay and as usual, should any of them hit [3.0], a substantial profit will be assured.

Recommended Bets
3u Ian Poulter @ [120.0]
1.5u Fred Couples @ [280.0]
1u Kevin Na @ [370.0]

Place order on each player to lay 12u @ [20.0]
Place order on each player to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +60 units

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