US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 25 March 2008 /

"As Woods loses his unbeaten run, at last his rivals stake a claim." Paul Krishnamurty welcomes the renewed prominence of some of the game's heavyweights.

Any sports punter will be well acquainted with the saying that 'form is temporary, class permanent'. In some sports where results can be dramatically affected by small pieces of luck or a momentary lack of confidence - football or cricket for example - it's often a crucial maxim to consider when looking for value. With golf betting though, it can be dangerous because if a player seriously loses confidence in their driver or putter it can be curtains for their career. Just ask Ian Baker-Finch or Sandy Lyle.

So it was nice to see several recent strugglers return to somewhere very near their best this weekend. It could have a dramatic influence on the betting ahead of the forthcoming US Masters, not to mention the result. Doral winner Geoff Ogilvy previously traded as high as [160.0] for the Augusta showpiece, but after a gutsy all-the-way victory the former US Open champion is down to [50.0] to land a second Major victory. In fairness to Ogilvy, he wasn't a particularly unlikely winner. Sure, he'd had a miserable winter and start to the season, but decent performances over the previous fortnight marked him down as a contender on a course where he'd prospered in the past.

Arguably of greater significance to the Masters market were the performances of the three players tied for second place at Doral - Vijay Singh, Jim Furyk and most of all, Retief Goosen. With six Major wins between them, all three of these have been ranked in the world's top-3 at some stage, yet all had increasingly looked just lately as if they were in decline. That may still be the case, but at least they're standing up to be counted again.

Goosen, who started last week at [150.0], had given the most cause for concern. Forget winning tournaments, Goose hadn't even made a top-10 anywhere in the world since finishing runner-up to Zach Johnson at the Masters forty-nine weeks ago. As a consequence of this week's vastly improved effort, the South African's odds for Augusta have more than halved down to [36.0], an understandable move considering he's made the top-3 there in four of the last six years.

Furyk has shortened by over twenty points down to [40.0], a similar move to that of Singh who now trades below [30.0] to win his second Green Jacket. Neither of these guys could ever have been described as 'gone', but it remains significant that Furyk put in by far his best effort since the opening week of the season. As for Vijay, his third top-3 in four outings has been the perfect answer to people like me who've wondered aloud whether decline was inevitable now he's reached the age of 45.

Before anyone goes steaming in at these reduced odds though, there is one crucial word of warning. Conditions at Augusta are very unlikely to resemble the rain-soaked course we've just seen at Doral. The downpour made the greens receptive and produced target golf conditions for anyone playing their approach from preferred lies on the fairway. In contrast, unless bucket-loads of rain arrives, Augusta's main defence will be, as usual, its lightning fast greens. Singh in particular has consistently left the impression in recent years that he's not the same player in dry, fast conditions. His long game has never been a problem, but I rarely feel confident about him standing over a short putt.

Similarly, the flatstick has always been the key for Goosen. For several years, he was no more than a decent European Tour player, known for a brilliant long game but also for usually struggling to convert birdie chances. As soon as this area of his game improved, he moved up several rungs on the world ladder and became a dual Major winner and regular contender in all the big events. So rather than getting carried away about one rejuvenated performance, I'll be watching Goosen's performance closely at this week's Zurich Classic before making up my mind.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: