Tiger Woods Comeback Part II: Back, lay or sit on the fence?

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

The great man plays the second tournament since exiting the scene with that knee injury, so how do you play the market this week with the 'Woods Effect' factored in. Paul Krishnamurty has an idea...

As we saw at the last World Golf Championship event a fortnight ago, no matter how he performs, merely the presence of Tiger Woods transforms the entire profile of a golf tournament. As punters, we're less interested in the endless media hype, but nobody betting on that matchplay event can have failed to notice the marked increase in liquidity, not least when his loyal fans steamed in pre-tournament to force his odds in a full point to an almost inexplicably short level.

They soon paid the price for that over-enthusiasm, with Tiger's bid ending at only the second hurdle. This week presents a quick opportunity to recoup those losses, and from the wider perspective, offers a far better guide to whether the great man is truly back to his best. Matchplay is always a somewhat random affair; anyone can lose a match with a few bad holes. Alternatively, in a 72-hole strokeplay event, where everyone has the chance to recover from a bad stretch, the best man should always win. With no excuses this time, Tiger's performance at Doral will profoundly affect the Masters betting.

I must be honest and say that, at the current quote of [4.6], I am genuinely confused as to the correct path to choose. So here's the case for all three options.

It's very easy to understand why any Tiger fan would want to take the [4.6] on offer. Because quite simply in any other previous year, and without the current injury concern, this would be one of the value bets of the year. His record from six visits to Doral is three wins, one second place and never worse than 9th. In other words, in statistical terms he should be an even money chance. Woods won here in 2005, 2006 and 2007, so if he's anywhere near his best, he really must be expected to win.

The problem with that theory, and the reason why under no circumstances could I seriously consider taking short odds about him, is that there is no good reason to assume Tiger will be anywhere near his best. He certainly wasn't in either of the two rounds we saw at Dove Mountain, on a course that should have favoured him every bit as much as Doral. His first round opponent, Brendan Jones, put up absolutely no resistance, but after a magical start Woods' form was ordinary. And in the second round, there was very little to remind us that we were watching the greatest player ever.

There was definitely a hint at Dove Mountain that he was limping towards the end of rounds, which was not unexpected after such a serious knee injury. Until clear evidence proving otherwise is available, the possibility must remain that Tiger has come back too soon, much as Ernie Els did after a similar injury in 2005. If we were talking about any other player, there would be a general consensus that backers were expecting too much, too soon.

So surely that makes him a lay? Perhaps, though I'd be more inclined to do so at less than [4.0] and would rather wait a few holes. In fact, if Dove Mountain is anything to go by, that [4.6] will soon disappear on Thursday, and layers will be able to oppose Woods at much shorter before the round even starts. So long as Woods doesn't get too far behind early on, his odds will remain pretty short, so it may be possible to delay the verdict.

The best strategy then, in my view, is to sit on the fence and adopt a 'wait and see' approach for at least the first few holes. More to the point, Woods' presence has, as always, forced everyone else's price out, which could offer some great trading potential on others.

Formbook students will no doubt be keen on Geoff Ogilvy at [15.0]. Not only did he win the Matchplay in very impressive style, his third title in four months, but he is defending champion at Doral and finished third on the course in 2007. He is certainly a worthy second favourite, and its hard to escape the conclusion that if the Aussie were a bigger name, he'd be in single figures.

Alternatively, there's the pair of rising superstars who I expect to challenge Woods in the not too distant future; Rory McIlroy and Anthony Kim. At [32.0] and [40.0] respectively in the win market, and available at twice Woods' win odds to make the top-5, they simply must make more appeal from a trading perspective.