Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 March 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty has his eye on Australia's Adam Scott as the rain buckets down in Florida, conditions that will play into the hands of the target specialists. But can anyone triumph over Tiger?

Even with strong winds gusting in the afternoon, low scoring once again confirmed that Doral's 'Blue Monster' tag is badly outdated. Geoff Ogilvy and Miguel-Angel Jiminez headed the birdie blitz with a pair of 65s, and several other leading names also managed to break 70. None more so than Tiger Woods who sits ominously two off the pace, though he did offer the rest a small ray of hope with an uncharacteristic three-putt on his final hole. Having been matched at a low of [1.57] prior to that bogey, Woods is now trading at [1.75].

Assuming similar scoring is maintained, it will take a huge effort for anyone currently further than four shots off the lead to win. A popular and usually fairly accurate method for predicting the winning total is to double the score of the first round leader and add two shots. In this case, that would mean -16 but Doral looks far too vulnerable for that score to be competitive on Sunday and I expect -20 will be closer to the mark.

Furthermore, the effect of this afternoon's heavy rain will be to soften the course and make the greens more receptive, accentuating the advantage already held by long-hitters at Doral. Tiger particularly revels in such conditions, and will take the world of beating. The rest simply have to hope Woods makes his task that little bit harder with one moderate round, or alternatively shoot the lights out themselves.

There's certainly enough quality on the leaderboard to do it. Pre-tournament second favourite Phil Mickelson maintained that status by matching Tiger's 67, tightening his odds to [11.0]. My concern with Phil though is that his putting has been below par just lately, and he could get left behind on Doral's greens that have given him headaches in the past.

Jiminez remains an unlikely winner, with today's round unrecognisable from the recent dross he's been serving up in Europe, but former US Open champion Ogilvy is well capable of going low again tomorrow and retaining a strong position over the weekend. In-form Stewart Cink sits in third place and must also come into consideration for trading purposes, but anyone who saw his final-day debacle at the recent PODS Championship would want to be getting out before the pressure kicks in.

My main trade for day 2 is on Adam Scott, who is currently tied with Woods and Mickelson. When the greens are dry and fast, Scott is near the top of my players to avoid list, but his brand of target golf is ideally suited to softened golf courses. The World No.5 is one of the few on the leaderboard who is long enough, and classy enough, to keep pace with Tiger. Whether he can actually break Woods' winning streak is questionable, but there's plenty of trading mileage from odds around [22.0].

Those looking for massive priced outsiders might consider speculative trades on Robert Karlsson and Ross Fisher at [200.0] and [320.0] respectively. Both sit on -4, just three off the pace, so if either can shoot 68 or better again tomorrow they'll be set up for a good weekend. Karlsson often becomes a birdie machine in target golf conditions, and made a respectable Doral debut last year in 11th place.

As for Fisher, his wild inconsistency is always a concern, but when he is good, he is very good. The Surrey-based WGC rookie has improved plenty since giving Woods, Els and Stenson a serious run for their money in Dubai just over a year ago, another occasion when low scoring was the order of the day. And if you understandably don't fancy taking on Tiger, both are very fair value at double figures in the 'Top European' market.

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