Golf Events / Steven Rawlings / 07 May 2008 /

it's favourites in Europe and outsiders in the US for our man in his early look at the odds from this week's big golf tournaments

Having finished second in both 2005 and 2006, Anders Hansen led the Italian Open during round one last year. He raced to -7 through just ten holes and traded at around [3.5] but for some reason he struggled after that and ended up in a tie for 56th. What happened last year was strange but it did underline how well the course suits the Dane and he's my first pick for the tournament @ [25.0].

When I first saw the prices for this event I was disappointed to see Francesco Molinari so short. But given that he dotted up here in 2006 and was a fast finishing tied third last year, missing out by a shot, then the [21.0] taken is fair. I get the impression that Francesco is a bit of a slow starter and he was probably hindered by the event being curtailed to 54 holes last year. On first look the price seems short but It's hard to imagine him not contending.

I've also thrown a fiver at Marcel Siem @ a ridiculously big [350.0]. He's already had a couple of top ten finishes here in 2004 and 2005.

In contrast to the European event The Players' Championship at Sawgrass doesn't throw up any obvious selections. In the last three years it's been won by players as diverse as Phil Mickelson and Fred Funk, winners have popped in having no obvious course form and players to the forefront of the market don't have the greatest of records here.

Tiger Woods didn't recover in time for this week. It's not a surprise but it is a shame. His record here isn't spectacular but he'd have been a short price and that would have created plenty of value elsewhere.

I looked closely at Mickelson again but his record here isn't terrific and when he won here last year he was arriving in slightly better form than he does this. I think Harrington could have a good week but as is usually the case with Pod his price isn't attractive.

On to those that did get backed and first up is 2006 winner Stephen Ames @ [85.0]. A close inspection of his form shows he's in great form with every club bar his putter. If he could just get the flat stick working he could well challenge again this week.

I like the look of a few elder statesmen of the tour this week too. Former winners Fred Couples and Steve Elkington are in pretty good form this year and have been backed at [120.0] and [210.0] respectfully. I've also backed Bart Bryant @ [130.0]. He's also in decent nick this year and I can just see him landing another big title to go alongside his Tour Championship victory of 2005.

Ben Crane backed @ [210.0] is a player I back quite often. He gets a lot of bad press because he's painfully slow to watch but he's a very decent player who's suffered with a bad back over the last few years. He's started the year well and the price is more than fair.

All the above picks enjoy a morning tee time on Thursday, which can be a big advantage here if the wind gets up.

My last pick is very speculative. Richard Sterne @ [400.0] may just have been inspired by fellow South African Trevor Immelman's Masters victory to warrant a small bet though.

As usual, I'll post an update on Saturday morning.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: