Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 June 2009 /

Mickelson, Garcia, Stenson and Harrington are in the lineup at Southwind, but a couple of old timers make more appeal for Paul Krishnamurty.

After a sensational victory in Sunday's Memorial Tournament, Tiger Woods has cemented his position as [3.0] favourite for next week's US Open, and the onus is now transferred to four of his most obvious rivals to state their own claims in the final event before that Bethpage Black showpiece. A win would be the perfect response, but in reality, all four would probably settle for any sort of decent finish, just to build some confidence.

The four players in question are Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson; ranked second, fourth and sixth in the world respectively; plus reigning Open and PGA champion Padraig Harrington. In fairness, Mickelson is in a different category; in terms of both form and quality. Nobody doubts he can win next week, on a course where he finished second to Tiger in 2002. Rather the concern with Mickelson is that he has had more important things to focus on than golf recently, with his wife Amy battling cancer.

I'll be very surprised if Mickelson is fully wound-up at Southwind this week, and suspect he's merely using this tournament as a warm-up. The only time he ever played this event was back in 2001, and he missed the cut on that occasion. It may be worth noting, too, that Mickelson missed the cut in the event that preceded the Masters in April, when there was no doubt about his form. [2.2] about Lefty making the top-10 looks a sound lay.

Any sort of positive form would be a bonus for Garcia and Harrington. Sergio has been a huge disappointment so far in 2009, after starting the year in a challenging position behind Tiger in the rankings. Back then, it seemed very possible that Garcia would be down to single figures for Bethpage, but having failed to make a top-10 since January, the erratic Spaniard is out to a weak [46.0].

Harrington's stats are similar, only worse. Pod hasn't made a top-10 since the opening event of the season, and has missed three out of four cuts since disappointing in the Masters. It's hard to believe this is the same player who has won three out of the last seven majors, and it may just be that Harrington is struggling to cope with his new 'superstar' status.

Though both of these Europeans have performed well at Southwind before, it's very hard to recommend any sort of bet.

Stronger claims, for both this week and next, may lie with their Ryder Cup team-mate Stenson. On the basis of an emphatic victory in last month's 'Fifth Major' at Sawgrass - the highlight of his career to date - Stenson must rate a big contender at Bethpage. However, in the two European events since then, the Swede stands an embarrassing 16 over par for four rounds, so he too could really do with a confidence boost.

While those four big names will doubtless grab plenty of attention, in my view much better value lies with backing a couple of out and out course specialists. In fact, the presence of these stars may be to our advantage, because it's hard to see how David Toms or Justin Leonard would be available at anything approaching double figures otherwise.

This pair really have made Southwind their own over the years, as the following course stats illustrate. Leonard is defending champion, having also won in 2005, and made the top-10 on five of his eight visits. As for Toms, his record from 2002 to 2007 in this events reads fourth, first, first, second, 10th and third. Only last year, when his game was in the doledrums, did Toms' Southwind form deteriorate.

The 2001 PGA champion has fought back well this year, and this fairly prolific winner looks ready to win a 13th PGA Tour title. A career best effort at Sawgrass was his fifth top-10 of the year, and probably better than the bare figures suggested. Leonard's form is equally solid, with 11 sub-70 rounds from his last 12. Both available at around [16.5], these two experienced campaigners look a solid combined trade.

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