South African Open Betting: Home advantage could be key at Pearl Valley

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 16 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

A strong South African challenge from country's elite could scupper European bid, says Paul Krishnamurty. And don't get him started on Henrik Stenson's price...

Perhaps due to the effect of the Race to Dubai, this week's field for the South African Open looks the strongest in living memory. An excellent development in my view, for these winter tournaments at some of the best venues in the world have always deserved better than their second division ranking. Who knows, in a year or too this event might be able to attract the Tigers of this world.

Even if they are growing in numbers, history suggests the travelling contingent will have their work cut out. South Africans have won their national Open seven years in a row, and the only European winner in the 12 years since the event became co-sanctioned was Matthias Gronberg back in January 2000. Moreover, for the first time this winter, every leading South African is in the field. Ernie Els will bid for his fifth national Open title. Retief Goosen, Trevor Immelman and Tim Clark are all chasing their third.

Last year's result at Pearl Valley also pointed to a home advantage effect. 11 of the top-20 were South African, including winner James Kingston. Compare that, for instance, to the five that made the top-20 in last week's co-sanctioned event at Leopard Creek.

Despite the stats, the market is headed by a European, runaway Nedbank Challenge winner Henrik Stenson at [8.6]. I must say I find this is a truly terrible price. No doubt, he produced some spectacular golf at Sun City, but that was Stenson's first win of a generally inconsistent year.

And this week's test is completely different. That was Stenson's third good effort at Sun City, a course he clearly loves, where he tends to make hay on the par-5s. But nobody will be thinking about -21 at Pearl Valley, a tough, positional course which produced a winning total of just -4 last year, with only six players under par. Not one player in the top-10 started at less than [50.0] to win the event. With that last point prominent in my thinking, I'm laying Stenson to finish in the top-10 at around [1.9], and the top-5 at around [3.5].

Lee Westwood is a much better price at [16.0], (especially considering he has clearly been superior to Stenson during 2008), but having lost money on him yet again at Leopard Creek I can take no more. His efforts over the weekend, after holding a strong position at halfway, were distinctly lacklustre and left the impression that we won't be seeing his best until the new year at the earliest.

In contrast, his old mate Darren Clarke certainly is properly motivated, and deserves great credit for his globetrotting efforts having also played in last week's Australian Open. Clarke is determined to get back into the world's top-50, and would be a contender at his best on a course where he finished third last year. However, there was nothing in his 72/77 missed cut at Royal Sydney to suggest the long round-trip will prove worthwhile.

Even Rory McIlroy, the brightest hope European golf has seen in many a year, has a big question mark to answer. I'm not referring to last week's missed cut, which is easily forgiven as his only bad result in months, rather it's the fact his scorecard from last year's visit reads a 83/74. Nevertheless, as he generally looks a surefire winner in waiting, I couldn't bring myself to lay him. And I certainly prefer McIlroy to Justin Rose, who once carried the same sort of hype as a teenager, but who has seriously gone off the boil in 2008.

The home contingent certainly compare favourably. Clark and Goosen have both won recently, while Ernie is usually a big factor on home turf. Reigning Masters champion Immelman will carry strong support in his home state. Everything points to business as usual.