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Shell Houston Open Betting: Stick with the Strick

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Fourth best in the world, but seventh in the betting, TQ is hot for Steve Stricker in the Masters warm-up event

With just a week to go before the season's first major there is a surprisingly good field assembled in Texas for the Shell Houston Open.

It is fascinating to see how all golfers have different methods of preparation for major tournaments. This week provides us with an opportunity to pick out those who are there to win from those who are there to practice. Then all we have to do is pick the winner.

The Tournament course at Redstone GC measures 7,457 yards but it doesn't play quite as difficult as the figures suggest. Although this is only the third year this course has been used, the event itself is one of the longest standing tournaments on tour. Recently moved to a new date slot just before the Masters this event now takes on a slightly different perspective than in the past.

Phil Mickelson heads the market and as a player who is well known for peaking at the right time you can expect his game to be in good order. I don't however think he will be in the mix at the business end this week. No, the man that jumps off the page at me is Steve Stricker. You can ignore some of his mediocre course form in years gone by as Stricker is simply twice the player he used to be. In the last two years has come third and ninth on this course. It seems strange to me that the player ranked four in the world is seventh favourite for an event he likes and that features only one player ranked higher in the world than him. At odds of around [24.0], Stricker is the stand out bet for me this week.

The top three in last year's event suggest that there may be some advantage to the big hitters over this course. Of the guys that can really send it out there I keep getting drawn to last week's winner Andres Romero. In some respects he is a punter's nightmare but in others he is actually just the kind of player you like. Things with Romero are very simple in so much as that he is either playing well or he is playing badly. When he plays well I suggest you stick with him until he goes off again, when that might be nobody quite knows. At current odds of [55.0] he certainly merits sticking with this week as your main saver.

My final shout of the week goes to Aussie Nathan Green. He is one of the lesser followed Australian players on the PGA Tour but he is by no means an also ran. He came 46th in the tour standings last year with nine top-25 finishes and I expect him to push on from there this season. Green was third in the Honda Classic a few weeks ago and will be pretty confident coming into this week. He is definitely worth a small punt at inflated odds of around [180.0] in the Winner market and is certainly worth a look in the Top Five Finish market also.

The players, the media and fans alike will do their best to focus on the events this week but none of them would be human if thoughts hadn't already turned to the big one next week. As a punter it is important to follow that philosophy too, as you can be sure that positive performances this week from some of the leading fancies may have an effect on their prices for next week. So, if you fancy someone for next week who is playing this week then don't get caught snoozing Sunday evening and miss the price.