Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 31 March 2009 /

A couple of months back punters could not get enough of the young American but wavering form has pushed his odds way out, now may be the time to back him says Paul Krishnamurty.

The message to his closest rivals was unmistakeable. With a characteristic final round charge, sealed with a birdie on an infamously tough final hole, Tiger Woods showed the world on Sunday that he is well and truly back in business. Any lingering doubts about his physical wellbeing or form were put to bed, and he will head to next week's opening major of the season as red-hot favourite.

But while Tiger makes his usual preparation for Augusta by taking a week off to fine tune his game, virtually all his main rivals have chosen to take advantage of the ideal Masters warm-up in Texas this week at the Shell Houston Open.

In fact there's little difference between the line-up at Redstone Country Club and last year's majors, for which an injured Woods was absent. This makes perfect sense, because Redstone really is perfect preparation for the tough challenges that lie ahead at Augusta. Just like the Masters venue, this is a long course, with lightning fast, undulating greens. Whoever wins is bound to see their odds for next week shorten up considerably.

Naturally, Phil Mickelson starts favourite in his bid for a third consecutive strokeplay tournament victory, and another win would set up one of the all-time great showdowns at Augusta against Woods, with the world No.1 ranking also on the line. The question punters have to answer is whether [8.4] chance Mickelson's mind will be totally on the job this week, or whether he is using Redstone as a preparation. As he only finished 23rd last year, my money is on the latter, though in all honesty I would never back Lefty in single figures against a field of this stature.

Having repeatedly shown that he's only interested in the majors nowadays, all the same concerns must apply to Padraig Harrington. Pod produced by far his best effort of 2009 behind Tiger at the weekend, reviving hopes that he could land a third consecutive major at Augusta, and further set up an unofficial 'grand slam'. But as he's played this warm-up three years in a row already, and never made the top-20, its hard to see why he'll be any more focused this time.

The most interesting stat from the three previous Redstone renewals is how well Australians have fared here. The first two were won by Stuart Appleby and Adam Scott, while Appleby and Geoff Ogilvy have finished runner-up in the last two. That must bode well for Ogilvy, who starts as clear second favourite at [16.0] in this bid for his third PGA title of the year. I'm a big fan of Ogilvy, but can't help but feel his odds more than reflect those wins.

If Ogilvy's short odds are a slight over-reaction to recent form, then the same argument may apply in reverse to Anthony Kim. A couple of months ago, Kim was all the rage with punters, starting in single figures for decent standard events. A few bad tournaments later, and the 24 year-old is out to odds around [42.0]. Admittedly, it is hard to make a case for Kim purely on form because he has been disappointing of late, but he still retains all the world-beating potential that we saw last summer.

One piece of form particularly takes the eye. Back in 2007, his rookie season, Kim finished fifth at Redstone on what was only his twelfth PGA Tour start. Since then, he's won on a championship course with fast greens, Quail Hollow, and would appear to have the ideal long-hitting, attacking game for Redstone. Proximity to the pin is all important here due to the difficulty of the greens, and few are better in this department than Kim. He's simply too talented to stay out of contention for much longer, and must be worth persevering with while these kind of odds are available.

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