Scottish Open Betting: Forget the PGA Tour raiders and go for three British winners in waiting

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 July 2009 / 1 Comments

Rory McIlroy and Ross Fisher can contend at Loch Lomond this week, but it's Ian Poulter who is really exciting Paul Krishnamurty as he surveys the Scottish Open odds.

Besides being a top-class event in its own right, this week's Scottish Open is interesting for what it tells us about two things. Firstly, of course, punters will be looking to see which players are in or approaching peak form ahead of the Open, though it's unclear how Loch Lomond form will translate to next week's major. After all, none of the previous 13 winners of this event went on to land the Open, and only two of this century's nine champions followed up with even a top-10.

From a wider perspective, events at Loch Lomond are interesting in how they reflect shifting power within the game, in both golfing and financial terms. This event has always been able to attract a stellar field, as overseas stars seek to acclimatise and prepare for the Open, but this year's field is by far the strongest in memory. The explanation is obviously financial, and not just due to the first prize of nearly E600,000. This is now a key leg of the inaugural lucrative Race to Dubai series, that promises to re-order the golfing world.

Until now, the European Tour has always been a poor relation of its PGA equivalent. It wasn't so long ago that we regularly had the ludicrous situation of top American players choosing not to bother coming over for the Open, let alone the preceding event. Nowadays, as corporate sponsors across the Atlantic are forced to tighten their belts, the European Tour is leading the globalisation of golf.

Consequently, Barclays have been able to attract a field of rare diversity. Besides the usual top-class Loch Lomond cast, this year's line-up includes former US Open champion and WGC specialist Geoff Ogilvy, emerging superstar Camilo Villegas, plus three of this year's PGA Tour winners in Nick Watney, Rory Sabbatini and Brian Gay.

It will be fascinating to see how they get on, especially the Americans. Because unlike next week's tough links, where they will understandably be at a disadvantage, Loch Lomond should present no worries as it is the type of target golf layout they're well accustomed to. But while all of the above-named, not to mention fellow PGA Tour stars Robert Allenby and Boo Weekley, are top-class and plausible winners, I reckon better value lies with a trio of Brits on the verge of golf's big-time.

Ian Poulter, Rory McIlroy and Ross Fisher all very much fit the tag of 'winners waiting to happen', and at respective odds of [17.5], [18.5] and [27.0] rate a good combined trade.

Poulter in particular looks certain to be there or thereabouts on a course where he's repeatedly thrived over the years. His last six visits to Loch Lomond have all produced top-25 finishes, including four top-10s. And that was the old Poulter, not the one that has vastly improved in the 51 weeks since finishing runner-up in last year's Open. He has become a rock of consistency recently, with Sunday's third place in France another top effort, and its hard to imagine him being far away in Scotland.

Taking a couple of weeks off following the US Open could turn out to be a shrewd decision on McIlroy and Fisher's parts, as they can now approach this massive fortnight fresh and raring to go. Both left Bethpage with their reputations strongly enhanced; McIlroy after a top-10 on his US Open debut and Fisher after challenging throughout to finish fifth.

Their progress, along with world no.3 Paul Casey, looks bound to continue, and could soon represent another notable shift in the game's powerbase. For years British golfers have been used to playing second fiddle to their American counterparts and next week will mark ten years since a Brit last won a major. That stat looks bound to end sooner rather than later, and while the Americans can still boast the world's best two players, this band of talented Brits are hot on their heels and ready to step into the elite.

Comments (1)

1. Keith Trenerry - Australia | 09 July 2009

   Paul

   I love reading your articles and predictions every week, your a genius keep up the great work. Keith