Ryder Cup Update: Despite Faldo's dubious selections, Europe can still bounce back at Valhalla

Ryder Cup Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 20 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty is keeping the faith in those European boys, but Faldo's selections are not confidence-boosters...

Besides the fact that the US lead the Ryder Cup after the first day for the first time since 1995, the big news this morning concerns Nick Faldo's controversial choices for the next session of foursomes. Out go Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood, the two team anchors everyone expected to play all five matches. In Garcia's case, even accounting for his poor performance today, the decision seems particularly harsh considering the Spaniard's record of 8.5 from a possible 9 in foursomes.

It strikes me as a massive over-reaction to a disappointing day, and a decision that will be forever used against Faldo if it goes wrong. As soon as the pairings were announced the US, who lead by 5.5 - 2.5, hardened by almost of a tenth of a point to [1.52] to win the trophy. Nevertheless, its dangerous to jump to conclusions just yet about Europe's pairs, and [1.52] is a very short price with a long, long way to go.

If there's one lesson we all learnt from day one of the Ryder Cup, its that things can change very quickly and very dramatically in golf. Three matches particularly stood out for the carnage seen in the in-running markets.

First of all, Harrington and Karlsson kicked their short-price backers in the teeth by blowing a three-shot lead from odds of [1.06], but they were soon upstaged by a rare [1.01] turnover after Jim Furyk and Kenny Perry somehow contrived to hand their opponents a half from nowhere over the closing holes. And then the final afternoon fourball saw the ultimate odds-on layers dream with both sides trading short at [1.22] and [1.07] before Americans JB Holmes and Boo Weekley both found water on 18 to only halve a match they had all but won.

Europe should be very grateful for those two unlikely halves, because while the current 5.5 - 2.5 scoreline leaves them with everything to do, they still hold a realistic chance of retaining the trophy. Its important not to over-react to one bad day. The jubilant scenes and patriotic chanting around the course towards the end of the first day's play seemed premature given the US's poor team matchplay record.

That's not to suggest it will be easy though. Phil Mickelson in particular looks to be revelling in his new role as team leader, expertly guiding precocious team-mate Anthony Kim through his debut. At last he seems to have forged a successful partnership, that will surely stay together for both of tomorrow's sessions.

They rightly start as prohibitive [1.74] favourites to accumulate another point against Henrik Stenson, who was a big disappointment yesterday morning, and Europe's supposed weakest link Oliver Wilson. However, we've seen already how there are no odds-on bankers in foursomes, so perhaps all is not completely lost for Europe in this match.

As for the other foursomes, even without Westwood and Garcia the Europeans don't look inferior in the morning matches. I'm inclined towards laying Hunter Mahan and Justin Leonard at [2.1] for their match against Miguel Angel Jiminez and Graeme McDowell. The US pair are a short price on the basis of their two wins from two so far, but they're hardly a certainty to keep the run going.

Hopefully, Europe's best pair so far, Justin Rose and Ian Poulter, can lead the way in the opening game and start the fightback.

Whatever the events so far and Faldo's team selections, all the arguments made pre-tournament for backing Europe still apply. Given the market reaction, I feel I must dig my hole a little deeper and have a couple of further anti-US bets. Firstly, I'm laying them on the outright at [1.53], as I feel confident that this will be a close contest on Sunday night. And secondly, I'm also repeating yesterday's doomed strategy of laying the US to win over the 2nd day at slightly shorter odds this time at [2.3].

SELECTIONS

LAY US TO WIN RYDER CUP @ 1.53
LAY US TO WIN DAY 2 @ 2.3
LAY MAHAN/LEONARD @ 2.1 (VS JIMINEZ/MCDOWELL)

OTHER FOURSOMES PREDICTIONS

ROSE/POULTER TO BEAT CAMPBELL/CINK
HARRINGTON/KARLSSON TO BEAT FURYK/PERRY
MICKELSON/KIM TO BEAT STENSON/KIM