Ryder Cup Betting Zone / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 September 2008 / Leave a comment

Paul Krishnamurty fancies a trio of big-hitters to dominate the Euro scoring chart.

Siding with the obvious has been a lucrative strategy in recent Ryder Cups when it comes to predicting the top European points scorer. In the last two, Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood were tied at the top, and Colin Montgomerie topped the charts in the previous three renewals. The only unlikely winner during that nine year period was Paul Lawrie, who shared honours with Monty at Brookline in 1999.

Needless to say, Garcia and Montgomerie were always at least challenging for favouritism. And if that doesn't seem like a big enough clue as to which end of the market to focus on, consider the fact that all of those last five winners played in the maximum five matches.

If that trend continues, almost half of the European side can be written off immediately. I'll be very surprised if Oliver Wilson or Soren Hansen get more than three games, nor is it likely that Graeme McDowell will play more than four. Ageing Miguel-Angel Jiminez will surely get at least one session off, and Robert Karlsson's recent neck injury also suggests he'll carry a lighter share of the burden.

Seeing as both have played the maximum number in every Ryder Cup they've appeared, it stands to reason Garcia and Westwood will get five matches again. Both have cast-iron credentials on their stellar 2008 form in strokeplay, let alone records in this event that leave all the other 22 competitors trailing well behind. Westwood has 15.5 career Ryder Cup points, Garcia has 15. The next best lining up at Valhalla is Phil Mickelson on 11.

There are a couple of slight concerns with Westwood though. Firstly, he's been suffering from tonsilitis over the last week or so, though hopefully that will have fully cleared up before kick off. A greater threat to his top scorer chances is that he will be without long-term pairs partner Darren Clarke. There are plenty of adequate replacements, but it will hard to forge an equally successful partnership.

With this in mind, I prefer Sergio's chances at [5.6]. This price seems more than fair in what I believe will be little more than a seven runner contest, considering Garcia is the most consistent of these on the world stage and on his way to becoming the finest ever Ryder Cup performer. In foursomes and fourballs, his record with a variety of partners is an incredible 14 points out of a possible 16.

After his heroics in the Majors, Padraig Harrington has to be a contender and he too should play all five matches. On the downside he has claimed to be 'knackered' recently, which may explain some very poor results since the PGA.

Its always fun trying to predict the pairings, and one of the most popular theories is for Pod to team up with Graeme McDowell in an all-Irish line-up. This would also make sense from the perspective of pairing a rookie with one of the most experienced team members.

Nor would I be surprised to see Justin Rose and Ian Poulter, who are good mates, paired together. Though a controversial wild-card selection, Poulter has at least shown plenty of aptitude for this head-to-head format in the WGC Matchplay before.

Matchplay certainly suits some players more than others, which augurs well for Henrik Stenson and Paul Casey. Along with Garcia, these two represent the best value at their current odds of [10.0] and [12.0], because they look likely contenders to play the maximum number of matches and are proven matchplay specialists. Furthermore, both are very big-hitters and therefore apparently favoured by the Valhalla set-up.

Stenson has won 10 out of 11 ties at the WGC-Matchplay, losing only to Woods when defending his title earlier this year. He also reached the semis of the Wentworth equivalent last year, and judging by consecutive top-4 finishes in the last two Majors is a man to follow this autumn.

As for Casey, he now becomes one of the senior players in 'Team Europe' for what will be his third Ryder Cup. He's done well so far, winning two-thirds of his available points, and also slaughtered the opposition to win the 2006 Word Matchplay at Wentworth. Few others in the European line-up have performed as consistently in the States as Casey, and I expect Faldo will have a heavy schedule planned for his wild-card selection.