Ryder Cup Betting Zone / The Betfair Contrarian / 28 August 2008 / Leave a comment

The Betfair Contrarian has examined the stats and says the Ryder Cup odds are wrong so back Azinger's men...

Beijing didn't exactly go as planned for the United States, who like to think of the Olympics as their own personal glory parade. After dominating the last three Games they wound up winning 15 gold medals fewer than the hosts and even saw their athletics dominance fade as they finished just one gold ahead of Russia and Jamaica.

All of which means that the Ryder Cup is the last remaining opportunity to show the rest of the world that they haven't completely forgotten their butt-kicking skills. Tiger Woods may still be in the infirmary, and they may be unfancied at [2.44] on Betfair, but this is why the Contrarian thinks you should back them:

Winning majors is a disadvantage
Irishman Padraig Harrington has won the final two majors of the year - the British Open and the USPGA Championship. This means that over the course of 2008, Europe has won more majors than the USA. However, this has been an unlucky omen in the past. In five of the last six Ryder Cup years, American golfers have won more majors than Europeans but on each of those occasions Europe won the Ryder Cup. 1999 was the last Ryder Cup year where the Americans didn't win more majors than the Europeans. And on that occasion they were victorious.

History dictates that Europe can't win
Since Europe took over from the UK and Ireland in 1979, no country has won the Ryder Cup four times in a row. USA won three times in a row between 1979 and 1983 while Europe retained three times in a row between 1985 and 1989. Europe arrive this year on the back of three straight successes.

Home advantage
The United States have been victorious in 15 of the 18 Ryder Cups that have been held in America. It is also significant that they have never lost consecutive Ryder Cups in which they have been hosts, with Europe's three previous successes coming eight and nine years apart. So after being defeated in Michigan four years ago, the United States bounce back next month in Kentucky.

An English captain was a bad choice
Europe's three recent victories all came under different captains: Scotland's Sam Torrance in 2002; German Bernhard Langer in 2004 and Welshman Ian Woosnam in 2006. This year England's Nick Faldo is the captain. The last time an Englishman took charge - Mark James in 1999 - was the last time Europe lost the Ryder Cup. English captains have a two out of seven win rate in the Ryder Cup since it became a contest between the USA and the whole of Europe while Scotland's Bernard Gallagher is the only of Europe's five non-English captains to have tasted defeat.

The absence of Donald
English golfer Luke Donald was a member of Europe's 2004 and 2006 Ryder Cup winning teams but is set to miss out this year with a wrist injury. Donald has a great record in the tournament with five victories, one half and one loss and won four out of four with Sergio Garcia as his foursomes partner. The USA may feel hard done by about missing world number one Woods, but he has a poor record in the tournament with ten wins, two halves and thirteen defeats.

Jack Nicklaus says so
If that isn't convincing enough then how about listening to 18 time major winner Jack Nicklaus, who believes that home advantage and the Kentucky crowd swing the balance in the underdog's favour. He said: "I think we're on home soil, but I think the Europeans are pretty strong right now, stronger than I thought they were going to be. I still think the U.S. is going to win at Valhalla." The course hosted the 2000 PGA Championship and two American players - Tiger Woods and Bob May - finished first and second.

Points patterns
Europe won both the 2004 and 2006 Ryder Cups with a score of 18.5 compared to the United States' 9.5. However, the last time Europe won consecutive tournaments by the same score - in 1995 and 1997 when they won by 14.5 to the USA's 13.5 - they wound up losing two years later by the exact same score.