Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 July 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty reflects on the Open's long-term betting implications as the golf season reaches its peak

There's always a temptation immediately after a major to take a break and try not to think too hard about golf betting for a few days, especially following such a memorable Open Championship. Having avidly watched nearly 50 hours of the Birkdale action, even a golf betting addict like me couldn't face tuning into Setanta for the low-grade US event last night.

Twenty-four hours on though, and its back to work. And not just to trawl through this week's moderate fare either, because yesterday's result has important implications for numerous long-term markets. We are bang in the middle of the best part of the season, with much to be settled over the next two months. Next week sees the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, a lucrative event that is infinitely more attractive as a betting medium now its usual runaway winner, (Tiger), is off the scene. And following on in just sixteen days time, we have the final major of the year, the USPGA from Oakland Hills. Besides that we have the Fedex Cup play-offs and in eight weeks there's the small matter of the Ryder Cup.

Firstly, a quick word about that last-named showpiece. At long last, Europe has a golfing legend to compare with the superstars of recent decades. Padraig Harrington's victory silenced the critics who doubted his ability to win multiple majors and this immensely likeable character is now firmly entrenched as one of the game's elite. He also did his Ryder Cup captain a favour by easing into a qualification spot and therefore freeing up another wild-card pick. The downside of that was to push Sergio Garcia out of the automatic qualification positions, but hopefully Sergio can do enough over the next fortnight to reverse that.

Nor was Harrington's triumph, the first by a European in a Birkdale Open, our only good news. Two more Europeans, Ian Poulter and Henrik Stenson, also produced by far their best Major showing to date in finishing second and third. Though my last bet on this market was to lay Europe at [2.04], and I am still leaning towards the Americans, I would have assumed yesterday's result worked very much in Europe's favour. So its a slight surprise to see them bigger than they were a month ago, at [2.14].

Post-Birkdale, we have an increasingly wide-open race for the Order of Merit. My book here had looked pretty uninspiring before the Open, particularly the earlier bets advised on Stenson and Harrington. However, after that one great week, they're both right back in a market which looks like becoming a six-runner race.

Much will be decided in those two imminent Stateside events. Miguel-Angel Jiminez still leads the way on €1.7M, a total that is at least 800,000 short of what will be required. For this reason, the top-two placed Jiminez and McDowell still rate the least likely winners of those six in my view. They've both proved their worth this season, but look much less likely contenders in the lucrative events than the 'big-four' of Harrington, Lee Westwood, Robert Karlsson and Stenson.

Its very hard to split those four. Padraig has only been outside the top-three once since 2000, so naturally I'm happy to be on at [12.0] now his odds have halved. However, I am concerned that his focus nowadays seems based solely around on the majors rather than the weekly events that will probably determine this close contest. If he has a poor USPGA, he'll face an uphill task from a sparse schedule, whereas the likes of Karlsson and Stenson tee it up more frequently in Europe.

Furthermore, I expect Harrington will miss the World Matchplay on a course he admits to hating. That lucrative prize could be pivotal, and all the other market principals are likely to head to Wentworth with strong chances. Not least Stenson, who I've had in mind for this event all along. Henrik has shown himself to be a great match player already, only losing one match in eleven at the WGC Matchplay, and that was to Tiger. He also lost last year's semi at Wentworth to tournament specialist Ernie Els.

Now he's returned to form, (in an unlikely setting as nobody rated Stenson a links player beforehand), my confidence is restored and I rate him the best value at [8.6], the biggest price of the six contenders.

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