Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 17 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty runs the rule over the contenders for the Race to Dubai which comes to a crescendo at the Dubai World Championship

As we enter the final week of the inaugural Race to Dubai, European Tour organisers can be pretty happy. With the race switching across various continents; covering big events in Europe, Asia, Australia over the closing weeks before this Dubai finale; there is now a putative 'World Tour' in the offing.

This is something we winter golf fans have long yearned for, and a clear improvement on the previous Order of Merit schedule, that had been embarrassingly snubbed by top players lured to Asia at that critical stage of the season. Instead, aided by the earlier finish to the key section of the PGA Tour, we've seen Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and a host of other top stars over the past month.

Betting on the money list has been exciting too, and there's still all to play for due to the huge prize fund up for grabs in Dubai. Throughout the season, I've already advised trades on Ross Fisher, Lee Westwood and Paul Casey, with the first two among the four players with a chance of winning going into Dubai. Casey rates the hard-luck story of the year, as he may well have taken the lead into this final week had injury not curtailed his season in early August, just ahead of a critical lucrative spell of events.

McIlroy has every reason to feel confident of maintaining his lead. Its easy to try and build this event's narrative around the 'big-four' but the reality is that this is one of the most competitive fields of the year. There is plenty of world-class opposition whose race bids have suffered because they only rarely appear on this tour, but who are more or less the equal of anyone in this line-up. I'm thinking here of major champions like Padraig Harrington, Ernie Els, Geoff Ogilvy and Retief Goosen, or PGA Tour stars such as Adam Scott, Camilo Villegas and Robert Allenby.

Given the number of potential winners, McIlroy's outright odds of [10.0] to win this week's event are a bad joke. Brilliant as he is, Rory still only has one professional title to his name, yet starts at half the odds of a triple major champion like Harrington. If you fancy McIlroy to win specific event or go close, then I would strongly advise taking the [1.67] to win the Race to Dubai instead. For in order to win the money list, he would probably just need none of the the other three winning the event, nor Westwood or Kaymer to finish second. As much as that is obviously no certainty, I'd rate it a considerably shorter odds-on chance than those odds imply.

From the same perspective, Westwood looks poor value at [4.4] to win the money list, compared to his win and place odds in Dubai. He trails McIlroy by E128,000, and unless he makes the top-three, or top-four at least, Lee will almost certainly come up short. Surely therefore if you fancy Westwood in Dubai, it makes more sense to take slightly bigger odds on Westwood reaching this week's top-five, and not worry about the fate of the others.

However, I don't think the front two are going to have it all their own way, and rate both Kaymer and Fisher very strong candidates to win this title. I agree with Bill Elliott that Kaymer's relative freshness could be an advantage, and am encouraged by the fact he was one of the first players to arrive to practice at the Earth Course.

His record in the Gulf makes very impressive reading too, with figures of 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 4th on his last four starts in Abu Dhabi. Odds of [16.0] this week aren't anything to get particularly excited about given the strength of the opposition, but I do rate him the likeliest winner. Kaymer is a superstar in the making, perhaps every bit as much as McIlroy, and can truly announce his arrival on the world stage this week.

Fisher also took last week off, which looks a questionable decision given his considerably tougher task. He now not only needs to win in Dubai, but also for none of the other three to finish second. Therefore, again anyone thinking of backing Fisher for the Race to Dubai at [18.0] would be better off taking the [20.0] to win the event. If he wins the event yet comes up short in the money list, that decision to swerve Hong Kong will be widely criticised, but in fairness to Ross, he said he was extremely tired after a tough schedule and wanted to prepare for this bigger event. That gamble will still have paid off if he walks away with the lucrative first prize in Dubai.

Though less consistent on a weekly basis, Ross has thrived in the biggest events this year. He owes his prominence to winning one World Matchplay title and reaching the semis of the other, challenging very strongly in two majors and also at the prestigious BMW Championship. All of that suggests Fisher is a man for the big, high-pressure occasion, and the Dubai World Championship certainly fits that description.

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