Quail Hollow Championship Betting: Mickelson the value as big two renew rivalry

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 28 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

The last four winners of the 'sixth major' have been class acts, says Paul Krishamurty, and, after showing at Augusta that he is up for a battle with Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson is a strong candidate to prevail at Quail Hollow.

Even if the Masters was ultimately decided between three outsiders, the final day charges of Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods offered a tantalising glimpse of how exciting the 2009 golf season could become.

Having seen his enormous lead in the world rankings disintegrate during that long absence through injury, Tiger faces a stiff challenge from his nearest rival. And on the evidence from Augusta, Mickelson looks up for the fight.

We'll have to wait six weeks until they square up for the next official major, but the next fortnight sees two tournaments that carry almost the same weight in prestige, and naturally the game's two premiere performers will line up at both. Next week, what is commonly known as the '5th major', the TPC, takes place at Sawgrass. Before that though, there's the event which I'd see as next in line, the Quail Hollow Championship.

The combined odds about either Woods or Mickelson winning at Quail Hollow are [2.86], (Woods starts at [4.2], Mickelson [11.0]). Perhaps not a great price at first glance, but better once previous leaderboards on this superb Pete Dye designed venue have been studied. The last four winners were all class acts; Woods, Vijay Singh, Jim Furyk and Antony Kim; and so were most of the chasing pack.

Considering that trend, plus the fact that very few of the other top-class candidates come here in anywhere near peak form, (e.g. Serigio Garcia, Singh, Padraig Harrington), those odds are perfectly reasonable. Alternatively, for punters just interested in backing one player to beat the other, there is a tournament matchbet available with Woods hot favourite at around [1.5].

Both have strong course form credentials, with Tiger holding the advantage. For finishing positions of 3rd, 11th and 1st, Woods' average round at Quail Hollow is 69.22, compared to Mickelson's 70.75. Lefty has yet to win here, but has finished in the top-12 four times in the past five years, so clearly gets on with the place. The strong emphasis on short-game brilliance around this layout suits both down to the ground.

While it involves going against a lifetime golf betting strategy, I must favour Mickelson, especially at the much bigger odds. When they lined up against one another on the final day at Augusta, I couldn't see beyond Tiger. His temperament, and suitability for such a high pressure head to head situation, has proven vastly superior time and again over the years.

But fair play to Lefty, he proved me wrong with some quite outstanding golf on that final day. Had he not dumped his ball in the water, or missed a couple of pivotal short putts down the stretch, Mickelson could easily have pulled off one of the most famous turnarounds in history and won a third green jacket. With two titles already to his name in 2009, there's no doubt he looks ready for a very big summer and a tilt at the No.1 spot.

In contrast, Woods' golf was patchy at best over the four days, and made a mockery of his short pre-tournament odds. As now, his case rested on one quality piece of form since returning from injury; winning at Bay Hill. I'm sure he'll be winning again soon, and certainly wouldn't lay at [4.2]. However, its been a long time since Tiger didn't at least drift significantly in-running, and at the opening quotes, Mickelson must rate the better trading, and matchbet, value.