Qatar Masters Betting: Kaymer and McIlroy offer so much more than Els and Goosen

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 20 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Youth can prevail in the battle of the generations in Qatar, says Paul Krishnamurty.

Punters who have watched tournaments in recent weeks could be excused for raising an eyebrow or two at the betting order in Qatar. For it would seem that long standing reputations are continuing to skew the odds in favour of certain players who are beginning to look very much like yesterday's men.

I'm particularly thinking about my favourite player of all-time, that all-round top bloke Ernie Els. Nobody would look harder for an excuse to side with the Big Easy than me, but there are none left. No way on earth should he be [15.0] against this field, whatever his course credentials.

The last fortnight in Hawaii has really settled this argument for me. Ernie's record at Kapalua and Waialae has been exemplary over the years. The first venue suits him as well as any in the world, and sure enough at halfway in the Mercedes, Els was sitting ominously in secod place and looking a surefire contender. However, his performance on 'moving day' was excruciating to watch; with the great man cutting a sorry figure around the greens as he lost all confidence with the putter. Its been a familiar story time and again over the last year, and in honesty, he hasn't been the same since suffering a knee injury in 2005.

In many ways, Ernie's performance at Waialae was even more disappointing. This is a course where he'd won twice before, and never finished outside the top-five. His attitude was hard to fault, and he actually improved his score with every round, but the old magic simply wasn't there and he finished in a never nearer 39th. Even considering that he's won at this week's Doha venue before, and finished third on his last visit two years ago, there is absolutely nothing to suggest Els is a serious contender against this world-class opposition.

Ernie's old mate and compatriot Retief Goosen has been overlooked by punters for some time, though there have been some encouraging signs recently. Since the autumn, Goose has been mopping up small prizes, including the African Open last weekend. As another former champion at Doha, that result has forced his odds in to [20.0]. That event wasn't televised, but on the basis of what we saw the previous week at the Joburg Open, I'm not getting over-excited.

There, he'd started the final day as favourite, starting a shot behind what has to be described as pretty weak opposition. Yet rather than utilising all that Major winning experience, Goosen's performance was a disgrace. He looked out of form, miserable and simply disinterested. Even despite an amazing final hole albatross, he fell back to 23rd place.

To be fair, both players will probably win again somewhere. They're both young enough, as class players tend to win the odd event well into their late 40s. But as much as I'd like to see that from an emotional perspective, it is madness to suggest they are the forces they were when winning their five Majors and countless other prestigious titles.

Moreover, I simply cannot see how they can start at shorter prices than the two most exciting young players Europe has seen in a generation, Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy. Along with Anthony Kim, I fully expect them to dominate golf in the not too distant future, and rate them the likeliest trio to eventually overhaul Tiger Woods at the top.

Kaymer served further notice of his potential on Sunday, when beaten a shot into second place behind Paul Casey. That was his fourth runners-up spot in a prestigious event over the last 12 months, in addition to two titles. Having won last year's Abu Dhabi Championship, and finished runner-up to Woods in Dubai, Kaymer is clearly suited to desert golf. He has improved considerably in the meantime, and looks excellent value here at [24.0].

As for McIlroy, Qatar looks the ideal venue for his imminent opening title. For me, his progress is even more impressive than Kaymer or Kim, because he really is a novice at the age of 19. He topped the all-important greens in regulation stats in Abu Dhabi, and fifth place was the fourth time McIlroy has made that payout position in his last five events. Form like that cannot go unrewarded for long, and again odds of [23.0] represent a top-value trade.

Furthermore, there is nothing particularly tricky about this venue to suggest their inexperience will be a handicap. Indeed, back in 2002 the tournament was dominated by two youngsters tipped for the highest accolades in the game. Adam Scott was just 21 when winning that title, while Nick Dougherty finished second at the age of 19. With all due respect to that pair, both of whom retain plenty of potential even to this day, in my view Kaymer and McIlroy represent much better prospects than they ever did.