Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty offers golf punters a bonus column this week as he selects five bets for Sunday's singles at the Presidents Cup.

The key to evaluating the Presidents Cup so far has been predicting the weather, and it's impact on a golf course that can transform very quickly from benign to brutal. We Internationals backers, hoping for conditions that would favour Aussies well-versed in the nuances of Royal Melbourne, were dismayed by Thursday's ultra-calm conditions. Even worse was yesterday morning's rain, which turned it into a US-style target golf course. In both sessions, the USA duly took advantage.

The home side, however, fared much better in the two foursomes sessions. That may have been partly due to their preference for that pairs format, but I suspect the much stronger wind was another factor. Starting the final day singles with a mountain to climb, trailing 13-9, Greg Norman and co will be pleased to see today's forecast, which points to wind speeds strengthening throughout the day. Odds of [7.2] about a comeback correctly reflect the scale of their task, but stranger things have happened in team matchplay golf.

As for predicting the 12 remaining singles matches, the two tried and trusted formulas for 18-hole matchplay must be applied. Firstly, remember that this format is golf's greatest leveller, and big upsets frequently occur. Secondly, that matchplay is a refined art, loved by some players and hated by others. Big clues can be gained from studying form in past Ryder Cups, Presidents Cups, Seve Trophys and most importantly, the annual WGC-Matchplay. So, recharged after a few hours sleep and armed with that formbook, here's my five best bets for tonight's extravaganza.

3u Kyung-Tae Kim @ [2.8] (v Webb Simpson) (Starts 23:30)

Lets start with a typical matchplay upset. Webb Simpson finished second on this year's PGA Tour money list, and has thrived on his team matchplay debut, winning three out of four available points alongside Bubba Watson. His opponent, while regarded a cracking prospect, is way further down golf's pecking order. However, all the pressure here is on Simpson, leading his team out in the opening singles match, whereas Kim must be on top of the world, after holing the decisive putt to pull off an even bigger upset against Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson last night. The 25 year-old Korean is supremely confident with the flatstick, which often makes all the difference in these short matches.

5u Charl Schwartzel (v Dustin Johnson) @ [1.93] (Starts 23:42)

Compared to his generally impressive team-mates, Dustin Johnson has looked like America's weakest link. He fell away dramatically from contention in the Australian Open as conditions toughened, leaving me to wonder whether he's really suited to these tricky layouts. A further worry lies in the fact he's lost in the first round of all three WGC-Matchplay appearances. To be fair, Schwartzel hasn't been that great either this week but the Masters champion is at least proven on greens like this. Boasting a much better record in that aforementioned matchplay event, Schwartzel is fancied to give his side some crucial early momentum.

5u Jim Furyk (v Ernie Els) @ [1.88] (Starts 01:06)

Neither of these golfing superstars have encouraging records in the WGC-Matchplay, but they have tremendous pedigree elsewhere. Els famously won the Wentworth version of the World Matchplay seven times, and has won three times on this course. All of that came back in his heyday, though, and on this week's evidence, Furyk must rate a strong favourite. He's been the player of the tournament so far, reading the greens brilliantly to secure all four available points. Moreover, Furyk's record in team matchplay singles is excellent, winning four out of six matches in the Ryder Cup, and boasting identical stats in the Presidents Cup.

5u Robert Allenby (v David Toms) @ [2.1] (Starts 01:18)

Should the Internationals fight back and take matters to the wire, this match-up between two wily veterans has the makings of a classic. Allenby's liking for head to head golf is best illustrated by an incredible play-off record, and he's had his moments in various versions of the World Matchplay. Toms has won and been runner-up to Tiger in the WGC version. My money is on Allenby, because the wind should be at it's fiercest during their match, and he is by far the better player in such conditions. For that reason, he shouldn't be the outsider.

5u Tiger Woods @ [1.71] (vs Baddeley) (Starts 01:30)

Arguably the best round produced by the post-scandal version of Tiger Woods came when trouncing Francesco Molinari in last year's Ryder Cup singles, and I can see something similar happening after a frustrating week. Many punters over-reacted to an improved showing at the Australian Open, but Tiger is slowly getting there and hitting the ball pretty well again, without having much luck on the greens. In any case [1.71] is a reasonable price about the greatest player of all-time, especially given that opponent Baddeley has been rather erratic this week.

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