Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Paul Krishnamurty makes a compelling case for opposing the USA at their current low price in the Presidents Cup odds

"Despite their rankings inferiority, there has never been a stronger challenge from the 'Rest of the World'. This year's line-up boasts seven major champions, the same number as the US team, and includes a dual WGC Matchplay champion in Geoff Ogilvy, plus Ernie Els, seven time winner of the other World Matchplay championship at Wentworth."

It's easy to understand why the market for this week's Presidents Cup favours the USA, who start at the prohibitive odds of [1.38]. They've won five of the seven previous cups, including the last two renewals by an aggregate eight points, and significantly enjoy home advantage.

Moreover, they clearly boast the stronger team in terms of both individual and recent form. Their team is headed by the world's top three players in Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Steve Stricker, all in good form having shared the last three Fedex Cup play-off events between them. Nor are the rest mugs, with 11 of their 12 representatives currently ranked in the world's top-25.

Nevertheless, despite these obviously strong credentials, I don't see the US as certainties this week. Far from it, and as far as betting is concerned, they look well worth laying at such a short price.

The main reason for this contrarian view is the team matchplay format. As long as I've been gambling on golf, I've taken the clear view that 18-hole matchplay is the greatest leveller in the game, and that these team events rarely respect the formbook. This has proved a fruitful strategy in virtually every Ryder Cup in the past three decades. For many years, Europe were universally deemed inferior due to their performances as individuals, and rankings based on strokeplay form, yet time and again they upset the odds. In 2008, the first time in living memory that Europe had started as favourites away from home, an unusually workmanlike US side turned the tables.

Similarly, the premier 18-hole matchplay event, the WGC-Accenture Matchplay, has thrown up numerous shocks every year; most famously the defeats suffered by Woods at the hands of Jeff Maggert, Peter O'Malley, Nick O'Hern (twice) and most recently Tim Clark. Basically in this format, where only one hole can be won or lost at one time, no matter how big the differential in strokes on each hole, anything can happen.

And these trends are in individual matchplay, where the formbook is expected to stand up better than in the fourball and foursome disciplines, which make up over half the available points in these team events. In pairs formats, most matches are little more than toss of a coin affairs. Here, it is much more important to find a pairing that quickly gel and bring out the best in one another. Though he has improved in recent team events, Tiger's record in pairs used to be terrible, and Mickelson's is nothing out of the ordinary.

In any case, the difference between the two sides is not as great as appears at first glance. There is only one player on either side currently outside the top-50, Adam Scott, and he has plenty of world-class pedigree. As we have repeatedly seen in recent seasons, the gap between the top-100 or so players is minimal, and how players such as Stricker and Paul Casey have climbed the rankings in double-quick time after good runs. There is no good reason why, for instance, 37th ranked Clark should particularly fear a match-up with third ranked Stricker.

I'm also not convinced that the history books are particularly relevant. So what if the USA won the last two cups resoundingly? Europe had dominated the three previous Ryder Cups but it counted for nothing last year.

It wasn't so long ago that the USA were being written off on two fronts. On the one hand, they were labelled a team of individual stars, unable to gel as a team and lacking the motivation to produce their best when representing their country. On the other, between 2006 and 2008 a regular complaint from US commentators was that the PGA Tour was increasingly dominated by overseas players, and that there was a dearth in upcoming US talent.

Certainly, despite their rankings inferiority, there has never been a stronger challenge from the 'Rest of the World'. This year's line-up boasts seven major champions, the same number as the US team, and includes a dual WGC Matchplay champion in Geoff Ogilvy, plus Ernie Els, seven time winner of the other World Matchplay championship at Wentworth. That's good enough for me, so I shall be laying the home side at [1.38] in the confident expectation that this will be much closer than the market suggests.

Tags: Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Fedex Cup, Geoff Ogilvy, Phil Mickelson, Presidents Cup, Ryder Cup, Steve Stricker, Tiger Woods, WGC-Accenture Matchplay