Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 05 May 2009 / Leave a comment

A stuttering Tiger goes to one of his least favourite courses this week and meaning the time has come to oppose Woods. Paul Krishnamurty explains...

Because of the constant likelihood of ending up with egg on my face, not to mention the fact that his achievements regularly defy logic, I'm usually reluctant to take this position. However, an exception must be made this week. Tiger Woods simply must be opposed for this week's 'Fifth Major' at Sawgrass.

Judging by the early market exchanges, I'm not alone in taking that view. Having opened at [4.5] on Sunday evening, Woods is now out to [5.2]. Doubtless punters were unimpressed with Tiger's weekend efforts at Quail Hollow, and it was easy to see why as the great man looked well below his best. After opening with a 65 to take a two-shot lead, Woods was trading odds-on and looked for all the world a certainty. To finish outside the top-three from there was very uncharacteristic.

Nor was his game quite there at the Masters. Of course, to anyone else, sixth and fourth places in two of the biggest events of the year would be an excellent return, but then Tiger isn't anyone else as his permanently short odds illustrate. The truth is we haven't seen anything close to a peak Woods since his return from injury, with the one possible exception of his win at Bay Hill.

Besides those form concerns, Sawgrass must be a huge contender for the title of Tiger's least favourite course. Whereas there are certain venues, (not least Bay Hill), where Woods doesn't have to be at his peak to win, then this famous Pete Dye designed stadium course is the direct opposite. The only time Tiger has ever won here was during the best spell of his career in 2001. Otherwise his Sawgrass record is dire by his standards, failing to make the top-10 in any of the six visits since that triumph. The last three renewals saw Woods register finishes of just 37th, 22nd and 53rd.

These relatively poor results are largely due to the demands of the course. There are very few, if any, top-class courses in the world where the longer drivers enjoy less of an advantage. Instead, every year the stats reveal a strong emphasis on driving accuracy and particularly greens in regulation. It is no coincidence that the player with probably less in common with Woods than any other; Fred Funk, who was usually both the shortest and the straightest driver on the PGA Tour; won here as recently as 2005 and has described it as his favourite. It should be noted that Woods ranked a poor 50th place for those pivotal greens in regulation stats at Quail Hollow.

As always, there are several ways of opposing Tiger, depending which market you prefer. A lay at [5.3] in the outright market makes good sense as an opening position for those hoping to build an in-running book, and the same surely applies to laying at [2.1] and [1.6] in the top-10 markets respectively. Remember the stats: Woods has only won this once in 11 tries, made the top-five twice and one further top-10. In other words, a huge profit would have been accumulated by anyone laying Tiger in those three markets every year, and he has rarely arrived in worse form than this time.

Alternatively, Woods' short odds ensure that there is all sorts of big-priced value elsewhere. Beyond second favourite Phil Mickelson; whose course record is similar to Tiger's moderate efforts, the rest are available at odds of at least [30.0]. Defending champion Sergio Garcia, who is something of a course specialist having finished runner-up the previous year, is available at a whopping [46.0].

Besides those mentioned in my 'Find Me a 100 Winner' column, the other pair I like this week are Zach Johnson and Camilo Villegas, both around the [65.0] mark. Here we have two top-class players who have won multiple PGA Tour titles in the past year, and who have both shown good form in recent weeks, and registered high finishes at Sawgrass in their relatively short careers already.