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Northern Trust Open Betting: Avoid the obvious and the winner can be found

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Tareq Quiroz previews the star-studded PGA Tour event

Riviera CC plays host to the newly titled Northern Trust Open this week, whose sponsorship has been richly rewarded with the best field of the year so far. The big boys have come out to play and this will be a true test of who is in good form ahead of the World Match Play.

One obvious absentee from the line-up is Tiger Woods, a fact that won't be lost on the rest of the field. It is a rather surprising omission from Tiger as he is well known for not wanting to let anyone or anything get the better of him.

And this event definitely has the upper hand over Tiger as the world number one has made eight visits with no success. He will be only too aware of this surprising statistic and I'm sure he will be back here next year to try and put that right.

On with this year's event and straightaway you are faced with a sea of talented players. Fortunately many are easily dismissed for one reason or another and finding the winner won't be as difficult as it may look. Riviera CC is not a typical US style course in so much as that it requires a higher degree of shot-making ability than most. You need to plot your way around the course and patience is needed on what are fairly difficult greens to read.

I suggest that you take advantage of the reasonable prices around and get on your fancies pre-tournament. Your first stop should be the rejuvenated Mike Weir. The likeable Canadian has rediscovered his game over the past six months and is ready once again to be a world force. He was excellent in the Presidents Cup before following that up with a tour win and has been consistently good since then. Factor in the bonus that he is already a two-time winner on this course and you have all the elements needed to take the title this week. He is currently available at [38.0] and at that price he has to be the main pick.

Americans haven't got a great recent record in this event and as such it is hard to recommend too many of the market leaders from the US. One guy who does catch my eye further down the market is Corey Pavin. After an atrocious 2007 Pavin has already gone a long way to securing his card for next year with last week's third place finish. He will be full of confidence going into the tournament and this course undoubtedly suits his game more than most. Corey is also a two-time winner at Riviera - back in the mid-90s admittedly - and could surprise a few people this week. He is currently trading at [170.0] to win and is certainly worth a small investment.

One of the players who narrowly missed out as my outright selection was Lee Westwood. He has been in fantastic form on the European Tour and comes over to the US as the leader of the Order of Merit. It is sorely tempting to have a saver on him at [34.0] and I would not put anyone off doing so. However, it is Westwood's opening round three ball that really takes my fancy. Jay Williamson and John Mallinger are not in Westwood's class and I really fancy Lee to outscore them both comfortably in the opening round. Try and get on at around [2.1] and I am sure you will not regret it come Thursday evening.

One man who hasn't got a mention this week is Paul Casey. The man tipped to take English and European golf forward seems to have lost confidence in his game. He is available at around [150.0] for this week's event and is showing no signs of a return to form.

So, what has gone wrong? Why hasn't Casey won an event for more than a year consequently slipping so far down the rankings that he is now 25th in the world? It is Ryder Cup year and Paul really needs to turn his game around and quickly. I put it to you: Is it possible he was never quite as good as we thought he was?