Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 August 2007 / Leave a Comment

Pro punter Paul Krishnamurty guides you through the weekend's tournaments

When it comes to trading a golf tournament in-running, there are a number of important factors to take into consideration.

The weather forecast and its effect on scoring at a particular time of day is the most obvious, but it's also valuable to know which statistics are most relevant at each venue, and which are the easiest and hardest stretches of the course.

All of these factors come into play at this week's two events in the US and Europe. Both events could experience weather delays with thunderstorms forecast, though I feel the impact will be harder felt in Holland at the KLM Open. Played by the seaside at Kennemer GC with strong winds coming in off the North Sea across this exposed course means drawing a favourable tee time could be pivotal.

It's worth keeping some of the betting bank aside for the halfway stage, by which time the effect of the weather on this wide-open event will be clearer. In the meantime, the best trading strategy could be to focus on big-priced players with proven form in bad weather.

One perfectly suited to the likely tough conditions is former Open champion Paul Lawrie. Lawrie has cemented his reputation as a 'bad weather player' several times since that shock Carnoustie triumph eight years ago, and showed his best form of the season in Sweden at the weekend, closing with a 68 to make the top-20.

Gary Murphy also hit the ball very well at the weekend without ever troubling the leaderboard, and has shown a liking for this event on more than one previous occasion. Murphy's 14th placed finish on this course last year bodes well, as does sixth on his penultimate start in Russia.

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The main attraction of the week though must be the Barclays Classic, the first event of new Fedex Cup play-off system. It would carry all the hallmarks of a major were it not for the absence of World No 1 Tiger Woods.

Tiger's decision to rest ahead of the three forthcoming events will be a blow to the sponsors but its not necessarily a bad thing as far as gambling is concerned. After all, final-day betting turned into rather a damp squib in Woods' last two runaway victories. Without him, its a wide open affair with Ernie Els, at 17 in the betting, the only player trading under 20.

The stage is Westchester CC, home to various PGA tournaments across four decades. Previous course experience is always an advantage around this tough, positional par-71 layout, with several of the market leaders consistently producing their best around here.

Els, Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia have seven titles at Westchester between them, with marginal preference for the Spaniard. Garcia's record here is superb, winner in
2001 and 2004 and twice top-four in other years. A word of warning though - bitter experiences over the past year, most memorably at Carnoustie, should have taught us is that Garcia is not a player to be trusted implicitly on the final day, who should always be laid back at short-odds.

The key to solving the Westchester puzzle has always been to back players who hit a high percentage of greens in regulation. Anyone doing so this week is likely to be moving up the leaderboard and shortening in the betting, as the course is expected to play tougher than ever in its new August slot.

Conditions should suit accurate players like Tim Clark and Zach Johnson. Masters champion Johnson was under-rated before Augusta, and remains so now.

He always hits a high number of greens in regulation and crucially putts particularly well on fast greens. Clark too is renowned for long-game accuracy, and has twice previously made the top-12 at Westchester. Prior to Southern Hills both had been in good form, suggesting that this week's odds of over 60 may be an over-reaction to missed cuts at the USPGA.

Westchester usually produces a top-class winner but that shouldn't be a deterrant to trading huge-priced outsiders. Over half of the top-five finishers at Westchester this century started at well over 100. As well as trading the outright market, these kind of selections often make as much appeal in the top-5 and top-10 finish markets. Two such trades could be Peter Lonard and Jeff Maggert. Lonard has some decent course form and confirmed his wellbeing with a cracking fourth behind Woods at Firestone on his penultimate start. The Australian has optimum conditions now the course is playing hard and fast, similar to the type of conditions he's used to on his home tour.

Interesting too that his previous best finish of the year had come at Sawgrass, another 'semi-Major' on a course where accuracy is at a premium.

Maggert is a real Westchester specialist. Twice runner-up in the 1990s here, he has enjoyed three good weeks coming into this event and is capable of turning back the clock. Few players have outperformed moderate expectations in Majors more often than Maggert. The reason is simple; he is always reliable from tee to green and loves fast greens. Rather like Garcia though, its important to remember Maggert's temperament has let himself down on numerous occasions when in contention so make sure to lay back and bank some profit if he shortens up on Sunday.

As for in-running strategy, rather than being overly concerned about the impact of the weather in New York, it could pay to know that the two easiest holes on the course are the 9th and 18th. Backing players in contention just before they approach their final hole makes sense as many will make at least birdie on these reachable par-5s and see their odds shorten immediately.
Another statistic worth knowing is that the back nine played half a shot harder than the front in 2006.

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