Golf Events / Tareq Quiroz / 11 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Tareq Quiroz looks at the main event on the PGA Tour this week where he has a huge-priced outsider capable of upsetting the big guns.

Torrey Pines may not have delivered us the unforgettable scenes that is did in last year's US Open, but it sure didn't lack for entertainment in last week's Nick Watney win. A seemingly surefire John Rollins victory was derailed in an exciting last few holes where four players battled for success. This week we have an old favourite on tour as the West Coast swing heads to the fabulous Pebble Beach for the AT&T Pro-Am. Once again a plethora of the worlds stars head to one of the most famous courses in the world for what is usually a cracking event.

The Course
Despite this tournament needing a full three courses to get the final result there is no doubt which of them carries the most kudos. The host course is the Pebble Beach track itself. It dates back to 1919 when it was first designed and was then the subject of a Jack Nicklaus inspired re-design in 1991. An iconic course that drifts alongside the wonderful pacific coastline. It may only play just over 6,800 yards but it sure can play tough if the wind is blowing...and it invariably does. If you are playing in-running then watch out for the really tough stretch of the course from the 8th to the 12th, get through there relatively unscathed and you kick on for home with some vigour.

The Favourite
Not for the first time in recent week there is one hell of a battle on for market leader. You cannot deny the class of Phil Mickelson but his start to the season has been unforgiveable considering he is playing on courses where he performs notoriously well. He may well go off jolly again at current odds of [15.5] as he has won this event three times but until he shows signs of a return to form he is best left alone.

If he is somehow ousted from favouritism then it is most likely to be the evergreen Vijay Singh who is the man to do it. The Fijian also loves it around Pebble Beach and should have more than just the one tournament win to his name. The minus for Singh backers is that he has just come back from minor knee surgery, and as much as I would like to it cannot be ignored. A guaranteed fit and sharp Singh would be the definite favourite but neither can be guaranteed and as such at odds of around [16.0] he also has to be overlooked.

The Next Best Bets
With the market leader struggling then surely there is some decent value elsewhere. There are indeed a couple of likely candidates that catch my eye. Firstly there has to be no doubt that Kenny Perry is one of the most in form golfers on the planet, yet he consistently gets ignored when the so called big guns enter the fray. I think this is a little unfair on Perry as you have to say that players like Mickelson and Furyk are showing little in the way of winning form and are living a little on past results. At odds of around [26.0] Perry is a must bet this week.

Another contender with decent claims is Pat Perez. He has shown a liking for this course in the past and with a tournament win this year already to his name he is a man who has to be in the mix-up this week. He is not afraid to go low and is someone who will probably best suited if the weather is not too bad. Certainly at his current price of [50.0] he should not be ignored this week.

The Massive Outsider
There are outsiders galore on show for this event but there is one in particular who I really like. Michael Letzig is a man who for me is going to go on to many tournament wins so why not follow him now at big prices. He is available at an enormous [250.0] in the Win market and if you think you would prefer to hedge your bets then check him out in the Top Five Finish market. He represents great value in a week when the favourites clearly do not.

Interesting Info
There are three three-time major winners on show this week. That is no mean feat considering there are only five that are still playing on the tour, one of those being the injured Tiger Woods. The par three fifth was re-designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1998 at a cost of an amazing $3M, that is one expensive hole. We have had two holes in one at that hole since then so maybe Jack didn't make it quite difficult enough! Away from Pebble Beach watch out for the fifth at Poppy Hills as that hole played the most difficult on the whole of the PGA Tour in 2006.

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