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Nedbank Challenge betting: value to be had in the lower reaches of the field

Golf Events RSS / / 28 November 2007 /

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Betfair's golf expert TQ fancies young South African to challenge in home tournament...

The Gary Player Country Club is the fabulous setting for this weeks' Nedbank Challenge. Situated in the heart of the Sun City resort, this magnificent course plays host to this very popular event. If spectators can drag themselves away from the many attractions of Sun City, there will be plenty of action for them to savour on all four days of this tournament.

As an invitational event, the roll of honour is always going to represent a who's who of golfing history but even so, you can't help but admire the list of past winners. The event has been going for 26 years and in many respects it just gets better and better. The course has grown into itself and is now a challenge that the world's best golfers thoroughly enjoy.

Early course reports suggest that recent heavy rain has left the greens a little softer than tournament organisers would probably like. The Gary Player Course is very long and there will be plenty of holes where mid to long irons will be needed for the approach into the green. This requirement is usually a daunting prospect but with receptive greens you can expect to see plenty of birdies.

There are only 12 competitors and the first instinct here is to study the form, pick your fancy and get on pre-tournament. I would suggest refraining from that a little and taking a more measured approach to making a profit from this event. The first piece of advice is to ignore all the market leaders until after the first round. This course can play pretty easy given the right conditions but the players will be fully aware that if you miss fairways and greens around here you will be punished. It is amazing how often the field in this tournament becomes separated very early on.

Having restrained from piling in to the top four or five in the market, the betting strategy here is to assess the less fancied runners and latch on to any value. Immediately the outsider of the lot, Charl Schwartzel, strikes me as the source of most value. He is a talented young South African who is certain to take over the mantle of his more illustrious countrymen in the next few years. Fifth on his debut here last year he will be well prepared for an assault on the title this season and at [30] he is a stand out bet.

So sit back, enjoy round one and then reassess the situation. History of this event suggests that players do not come from off the pace to win. Take the top four on the leaderboard after the opening round and take the plunge. With Schwartzel as your outside pick surely in contention, the other players to look out for are Adam Scott and Rory Sabbatini. If either of these birdie machines are in the top four at this point then pile in for your main tournament punt.

Tournament favourite Ernie Els is a master around this course, but he is using a new set of irons this week and I am reluctant to take the chance that they will bring success first time up.

Away from the Winner market there is value to be had in the Top European market. Four Europeans tee it up this week and I cannot get away from Luke Donald. There have been some signs recently of a return to form and this fabulous iron player has to be backed at [4.5] to beat his three opponents. With a good showing expected from Donald it will also pay to side with him in his tournament matchbet against Geoff Ogilvy, anything above [2] is a must bet.

Small fields and invitational events have been around for a long time now and personally I am a big fan of them. I enjoy good golf from the top players on the best courses. But, are the players sacrificing competitive tournament play for these end of season paydays?

From a betting perspective they require a different approach and an adaptable punter will always go far. There is an art to golf punting that is different to all other sports. Does this make us somehow better than all the other sports punters? I am looking for all answers in the affirmative.

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