Nedbank Challenge Betting Preview: In-form Garcia can land win, even at skinny odds

Golf Events / Tareq Quiroz / 03 December 2008 / 1

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Tareq Quiroz runs through the odds ahead of one of world golf's richest prizes - the Nedbank Challenge.

The rather unfairly titled 'silly season' is officially upon us and many would argue that has been the case for weeks. That would be a rather critical assessment of the recent tournaments and a slight on the achievements of those taking part. Still, it's not far off the truth. Sweden's Henrik Stenson and Robert Karlsson certainly wouldn't agree and would no doubt take umbrage to any suggestion their World Cup win was anything but a bona fide tournament victory. There is also little doubt that both Stenson and Karlsson will be firm fancies this week as our attention switches to the now familiar scenes at the fabulous Sun City.

The Course
The Gary Player Country Club is synonymous with the Sun City event which is now known as the Nedbank Challenge. Every year 12 of the world's finest golfers line-up at this great venue to thrill the expectant crowds. The course itself is extremely long but the altitude at which they play means that the yardages aren't quite as scary as they first appear. Traditionally the players have had a field day on this course but if it happens to be playing hard and fast then anything under par will be a decent score. I understand it is very hot in Sun City at the moment so anyone hoping to win this week will have to be able to tame what could be quite trying conditions.

The Favourite
It has been noted in many quarters that the field this year doesn't quite contain the same strength that it has in other years. I disagree with this and simply suggest that the field is a reflection of the changing of the guard amongst the world's top players. There is no finer player in the world at the moment that Sergio Garcia and quite rightly he is this week's market leader at [3.85]. The Spaniard is coming off a couple of recent victories and has now climbed to number two in the world golf rankings. Sergio also has the added benefit of having won this event twice and he is something of a regular here each year. Don't read much into his form here for the last couple of years as there were mitigating circumstances. He is the well deserved favourite and he will certainly be seeing the colour of my money at those odds.

The Next Best Bets
I am not going to win too many prizes for originality here but your back-up bet must be Henrik Stenson. The Swede found his game towards the end of the regular season and was definitely the one that kept Sweden in the tournament during the opening rounds of last week's World Cup. Stenson took to the Sun City layout straightaway and in his two visits has already recorded a fourth and a second place. He also openly admits that the course is one of his favourites anywhere in the world. Stenson comes here with bags of confidence and must be a huge threat to the rest of the field. I can certainly see him and Sergio fighting it out on Sunday afternoon. Get on Stenson at current odds of [7.8] as, in my opinion, they will only get shorter.

The Massive Outsider
With only 12 participants finding a massive outsider is not quite as easy as it usually is. Although, rather conveniently, the outsider of the pack is one of the few players who catches my eye. James Kingston is a two-time winner in South Africa, and far from seeing this as a jolly he will view this as an opportunity to show that he can mix it with the best. Kingston will be suited by the conditions and he is not the rank outsider the market would have you believe. At current odds of [65.0] he represents decent value as a saver bet.

Interesting Info
Sergio Garcia is one of seven players who have won this event more than once. He will be aiming this week to join the exclusive band of three-time winners. One word of caution about Garcia is that in 2004 he had a final score +15. Still not close to Ian Woosnam's record of +21. If it goes to a play-off involving Garcia then you may want to support him in-running as he won both his previous events here in play-offs.

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(1)

Fredrik Gyllensten | 03 December 2008

I absolutely agree with you this week, I make my own picks on tuesdays, and my picks where also Garcia and Stenson, only I got 4 at Garcia at Skybet, and 8 at Stenson at Bet365 (but it is lower there now). I also looked long and hard at Kingston, and while I believe he represents some value I let him pass...

My stakes:
4 units on Garcia @ 4
1 unit on Stenson @ 8

Btw; It would be very helpfull if you and the other bloggers here at Betfair's golf site would keep stats for the picks you post.. Do you know what your ROI is?

Regards, Fredarn.
https://fredarn.com
https://spilxperten.com