Nedbank Challenge Betting: McIlroy can finally reward his suffering supporters

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 December 2009 / Leave a comment

Odds of 6.4 for a McIlroy win are tempting Paul, will they tempt you?

The Ulsterman has still got just one win to his name and his backers may be losing patience, but Paul Krishnamurty thinks this young master could put that right this week

"While the opposition are all classy at their best, several have doubts surrounding their chances this week. Some like Hunter Mahan or Angel Cabrera haven't played for several weeks, leaving us to guess whether they are well prepared or just enjoying a lucrative holiday. Others like Tim Clark, Robert Allenby and Luke Donald have never come close to challenging in this event before."

One might assume that the legion of golf punters who cottoned on early to the brilliance of Rory McIlroy would be sitting pretty now. After all, it would be harsh to have demanded more from his first two full professional seasons. Despite still often showing novice tendencies, Rory is already inside the world's top-10 and only lost the inaugural Race to Dubai title on the final day to a very worthy winner.

The chances are, however, that you would be wrong. Besides perhaps place only backers or the shrewdest of in-running traders, McIlroy supporters must be counting their losses as he still has just the one professional title to his name, earned ten months ago in the Dubai Desert Classic. A series of near-misses, most recently in last week's World Cup, have been particularly expensive.

During his short career, Rory has already divided punters. Already, he has a 'Tiger-like' quality of attracting a wall of cash every time he tees it up, almost irrespective of the opposition or course. Any would-be backer is therefore faced with the classic dilemma of whether to take short odds that might represent poor value or support him regardless.

There are also plenty of layers around who have cleaned up taking on golf's new 'hype-machine' in 2009. The sceptics now feel they have a further tool in their armoury; a dodgy temperament under pressure. He has repeatedly failed to get the job done on final days, and wobbled even when landing that sole-win. His driving during the final round of the World Cup was appalling, undoing much of the brilliant earlier work. A valid counter argument is that such blips are normal for one so young, and that once he gets a change of luck, he'll probably go on and win a spate of titles quickly.

A further reason to support the layers' view this week is that he is making his debut at Sun City, as no debutant has won the event this century. I doubt the relevance of this statistic though, and paradoxically such an analysis of previous winners can equally be used an argument to back McIlroy. For while that rollcall indeed shows a list of established players making at least their second appearance, it also reveals a string of players at the very peak of the world game. Nobody in this field fits that criteria better than Rory.

Only four winners in the last 20 years had not previously won major championships, and even those four were all obvious candidates; course specialist David Frost, Colin Montgomerie, Sergio Garcia and Henrik Stenson. It is hardly therefore a surprise that none were making their course debuts, as they were all well established stars. Alternatively, McIlroy often finds himself as a course debutant as he's only been around a couple of years. It was equally easy to write him off in the US majors due to that lack of course experience, yet he made the top-20 in each, including 3rd in the USPGA.

Even if Rory is slightly disadvantaged by the lack of course experience, his wider profile is in the same bracket as those other previous world-class winners. More so than any of the opposition. Defending champion Stenson is still ranked higher, but there's no doubt which player can boast the better recent form. Besides the near-miss in the World Cup, Rory has made the top-three in five of his last seven tournaments, only once finishing worse than seventh. As they were all high-class fields, it is very hard to see him out of contention.

A further reason to support McIlroy at Sun City is that, while the opposition are all classy at their best, several have doubts surrounding their chances this week. Some like Hunter Mahan or Angel Cabrera haven't played for several weeks, leaving us to guess whether they are well prepared or just enjoying a lucrative holiday. Others like Tim Clark, Robert Allenby and Luke Donald have never come close to challenging in this event before.

Normally here, two or three players pull away from the rest and all the recent evidence suggests McIlroy will be one of them. With regard to the price, I think [6.4] is fair enough in a field limited to 12. Especially considering that on his latest individual start, McIlroy was [10.5] in a field of 60, and came close to landing those short odds. He is overdue a change of luck, and won't get a better chance than this.

Tags: Angel Cabrera, Colin Montgomerie, David Frost, Dubai Desert Classic, Henrik Stenson, Hunter Mahan, Luke Donald, Robert Allenby, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Sun City, Tim Clark, World Cup of Golf