Nedbank Challenge Betting: Garcia at 3.7? No thanks...

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 December 2008 / 1 Comments

Talented? Undoubtedly. A winner? Of course. But are odds of less than 3-1 really representative of Sergio's chances against an elite field? Paul Krishnamurty doesn't think so.

Moving into the final month of the golfing calendar, its time for that long-established annual winter event from Sun City in South Africa, the Nedbank Challenge. As usual, there's a world-class line-up with 11 of the 12 players in this limited field currently ranked 32nd or better in the world.

Despite that top-class field, all the main betting interest focusses on the stand-out favourite. Sergio Garcia divides punters like no other player, and at just [3.7] there's plenty for his regular layers to get excited about. That includes me.

Its not an entirely straightforward call, however. Six weeks ago, I wouldn't have hesitated in opposing a player who has consistently shown himself to be totally unreliable at the business end of tournaments, and who had won just one event in over three years. Due to that awful win ratio, he could be confidently opposed at permanently under-valued odds, especially when shortening in-running.

However, since folding under pressure yet again in the Tour Championship Garcia has set about restoring that battered reputation, winning two of his last three events, including one in a high pressure play-off situation at the HSBC Champions Trophy. Those victories transform his 2008 record from one that was impressive yet frustrating, to unarguably the best form of anyone in the world this summer. Starting with his victory in May's Players Championship, Garcia's record from 15 events includes three wins, four runners-up spots and two more top-fives.

Compared to even this week's world-class opposition, that record justifies a dominant market position. With the possible exception of Phil Mickelson, Sergio has emerged as the clear rival to Tiger Woods upon the great man's return from injury. I've already had a nibble at [17.0] for next year's US and British Opens, and fully expect those odds to shorten up beforehand. Whatever my long-term reservations, I've always considered him an immense prospect, and am wary of being too judgemental about players before they hit their usual peak age in their thirties.

But trading is all about odds, and getting value at the right time. There's only one player I could ever back at under [4.0] in a competitive golf tournament, and whatever progress he's made, Garcia is no Tiger Woods. And there are plenty of very dangerous opponents at more than twice his odds.

After their sensational final round to win the World Cup, Sweden's Robert Karlsson and Henrik Stenson make plenty of appeal at [8.0] each. Whereas Garcia hasn't played for three weeks and could be forgiven if he's been enjoying a well-earned break, we can be certain that both of these Swedes are in peak form.

Lee Westwood can boast plenty of form at Sun City, including a win in 2000 and runner-up the following year. The Egnlishman's generous odds of [10.0] owe more to his own winless run than a lack of form. If Westwood hadn't inexplicably lost his former ability to close out tournaments, he could easily have won the Order of Merit and would be equally heralded as a major winner-in-waiting.

And last year's runaway 1-2 Trevor Immelman and Justin Rose are available at bigger odds due to Garcia's presence in the field. In fairness, besides Immelman's shock Masters triumph, neither has been in anywhere near the same form this time. However, the South African has shown some improvement in recent starts, and as a dual course winner deserves plenty of respect. Besides those five, its hard to make a strong case for the others on recent or previous course form. Nevertheless, the likes of KJ Choi and Miguel-Angel Jiminez are more than capable of living with Garcia at their best.

Besides that formidable opposition, there is one key statistic to consider before weighing up Garcia's [3.7] quote. In just under 200 professional starts, the Spanish star has won 18 tournaments, in other words he wins on average once every 11 events. That's plenty to be proud of, with plenty more to come, but it certainly doesn't represent a good [3.7] chance.

Comments (1)

1. Link Building | 02 December 2008

   I have to agree. I'd have a wager if theat 3.7 represented a place bet but not for the win!

   No doubt he will win now though!