Malaysian Open Betting: Is Anthony Kim the banker of the year or one to avoid?

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

The young US star is head and shoulders above the competition on the European Tour this week but does he justify odds as short as [7.2]? Paul Krishnamurty answers that question...

For most golf punters, its been a very tough start to 2009. While several of the nine winners on either of the main Tours were certainly pickable, none could have been described as obvious. We're still waiting for our first winner to come from the first five in the betting, let alone a favourite.

So there must be a temptation for favourite backers to start chasing, safe in the knowledge that one will come along soon. In previous years, having the mortgage on Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines would have been an option, but in his absence favourites tend to be unreliable sorts like Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia or Henrik Stenson.

However, salvation could be at hand in Malaysia this week. Because with rising superstar Anthony Kim very much the star of the show in the latest leg of the Race to Dubai, we do at last have a favourite who is very much worthy of the tag. Now all we have to decide is whether his short price represents value, for while he may be a stand-out favourite, there are strong arguments both for and against.

First, the case for backing Kim at [7.2]. It must have taken an extremely hefty appearance fee to tempt Kim over to Asia for this lowly event as he is several leagues ahead of the rest of this field. The 23 year-old is ranked at No.11 in the world, and in my view could be in the top-three by the end of the year if maintaining the rate of improvement shown in his first two professional seasons.

The only other member of the world's top-50 amongst the opposition is Japanese star Shingo Katayama at No.39, and all of his best form has come in his homeland. The clear second favourite, Thongchai Jaidee, is ranked 76 places below Kim at No.87.

Then there's the matter of his PGA Tour form. A repetition of any of three of Kim's last four efforts in the States would be enough to win in this company by several shots. He didn't win any of them; finishing second in the Mercedes Championship, and third at the elite BMW and Tour Championships; but it would be an enormous shock if any of this week's opposition could ever achieve that level of form in an event as prestigious as those, let alone either of the titles he won last year.

But for all of that, there are plenty of reasons to be sceptical. Most importantly, it cannot be overlooked that Kim withdrew from last month's Bob Hope Classic with a shoulder injury. It can't have been too bad because he teed it up the following week in the FBR Open, but the fact he went on to miss his first cut in nine months doesn't bode well.

Of course, at the age of 23, one might expect Kim to recover quickly and surely he wouldn't be making this trip if the injury was a concern. However, I'm sure this is a longstanding commitment, and who knows what kind of pressure he's under from sponsors and the rest. As the son of Korean parents, the Californian is a bigger draw than most in Asia. Also by that reasoning, there will be plenty of commercial pressures and commitments off the course this week. Kim may well eventually justify the 'Next Tiger Woods' tag, but perhaps we shouldn't assume that he will instantly cope as well as the great man when it comes to all these extra expectations and commitments.

Furthermore, there is much to suggest the venue will be less than ideal. Perhaps the most notable characteristic of this Kuala Lumpur venue is the extreme humidity, which has affected many an overseas visitor in the past. And Saujana G.C. doesn't strike me as the ideal course for Kim's big-hitting, attacking mode of golf. Past results suggest the key to success here is accuracy, with position on undulating fairways and avoiding the penal rough essential. If Kim has a weakness, its in this department; ranking 197th for driving accuracy, and 114th for greens in regulation over the last six months on the PGA Tour.

For me, those are the killer stats. While there is no greater fan of Anthony Kim than me, I just can't have him this week at such short odds. To back a player at just [7.2], I need to have virtually no doubts, and there are just too many this week.